Read the result, then trace it back to the races and sources. Each state has its calculation card: hover over the map, search a name or pick a state.
One race. Its numbers. Its calculation. Hover, tap or search for a state.
54 of 81 seats up. Expected seats by party, 90% range and chances of winning the most seats.
| Party | Expected seats | 90% | Most seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PL | 13.3 | 9–18 | 92% |
| MDB | 7.4 | 5–10 | 3% |
| PT | 6.7 | 3–10 | 5% |
| PP | 4.2 | 2–7 | |
| União Brasil | 3.7 | 2–6 | |
| PSB | 3.6 | 2–5 | |
| PSD | 3.4 | 1–6 | |
| Republicanos | 2.8 | 1–5 | |
| Podemos | 2.1 | 1–3 | |
| PDT | 2.0 | 0–4 | |
| Novo | 1.6 | 0–3 | |
| PSDB | 1.2 | 0–3 | |
| REDE | 1.0 | 0–2 | |
| PSOL | 0.6 | 0–2 |
| State | Candidate | Polls | Chances of election |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP São Paulo | Simone Tebet PSB | 20.4% | 50% |
| DF Federal District | Leila do Vôlei PDT | 21.8% | 50% |
| RS Rio Grande do Sul | Manuela d'Ávila PSOL | 20.7% | 51% |
| AP Amapá | Randolfe PT | 20.6% | 48% |
| SE Sergipe | Delegado André David Republicanos | 18.1% | 52% |
| SP São Paulo | Marina Silva REDE | 20.7% | 52% |
| SC Santa Catarina | Carlos Bolsonaro PL | 21.3% | 52% |
| CE Ceará | Luizianne REDE | 24.6% | 52% |
| AL Alagoas | Renan MDB | 23.5% | 52% |
| MG Minas Gerais | Carlos Viana PSD | 18.4% | 47% |
| CE Ceará | Capitão Wagner União Brasil | 25.2% | 54% |
| RO Rondônia | Bruno Scheid PL | 19.6% | 46% |
| TO Tocantins | Alexandre Guimarães MDB | 16.6% | 46% |
| RO Rondônia | Sílvia Cristina PP | 19.4% | 45% |
| SP São Paulo | Guilherme Derrite PP | 21.6% | 55% |
| PR Paraná | Filipe Barros PL | 19.0% | 45% |
| MA Maranhão | Fufuca PP | 18.4% | 44% |
| PI Piauí | Ciro Nogueira PP | 25.4% | 56% |
| AP Amapá | Lucas Barreto PSD | 19.5% | 43% |
| PA Pará | Delegado Éder Mauro PL | 22.0% | 57% |
| SC Santa Catarina | Esperidião Amin PP | 22.3% | 57% |
| PR Paraná | Alexandre Curi Republicanos | 18.6% | 43% |
| RJ Rio de Janeiro | Carlos Jordy PL | 16.3% | 42% |
| AC Acre | Marcio Bittar PL | 21.6% | 58% |
| RS Rio Grande do Sul | Marcel van Hattem Novo | 22.4% | 59% |
| DF Federal District | Bia Kicis PL | 20.1% | 41% |
| RR Roraima | Nicoletti PL | 22.2% | 59% |
| SE Sergipe | Rogerio Carvalho PT | 16.1% | 40% |
| BA Bahia | Jaques Wagner PT | 25.1% | 60% |
| PI Piauí | Júlio César o Julim do Lula PSD | 25.3% | 60% |
| SE Sergipe | Delegado Alessandro MDB | 16.0% | 40% |
| SP São Paulo | André do Prado PL | 18.4% | 40% |
| RS Rio Grande do Sul | Sanderson PL | 18.0% | 39% |
| PR Paraná | Deltan Dallagnol Novo | 22.7% | 61% |
| MT Mato Grosso | Janaina Riva MDB | 21.8% | 62% |
| SE Sergipe | André Moura União Brasil | 15.7% | 37% |
| MG Minas Gerais | Domingos Sávio PL | 16.2% | 37% |
| MG Minas Gerais | Marília Campos PT | 21.1% | 63% |
| TO Tocantins | Gaguim União Brasil | 15.2% | 37% |
| RR Roraima | Helena da Asatur PSD | 17.8% | 36% |
| MA Maranhão | Lahesio Bonfim Novo | 17.0% | 36% |
| RJ Rio de Janeiro | Carlos Portinho PL | 15.1% | 36% |
| MG Minas Gerais | Aécio Neves PSDB | 15.0% | 36% |
| GO Goiás | Gustavo Gayer PL | 21.5% | 64% |
| AL Alagoas | Marina JHC PSDB | 26.2% | 65% |
| PR Paraná | Gleisi PT | 17.2% | 35% |
| PE Pernambuco | Humberto Costa PT | 24.5% | 66% |
| AM Amazonas | Capitão Alberto Neto PL | 26.4% | 66% |
| PE Pernambuco | Mendonça Filho PL | 18.2% | 34% |
| BA Bahia | João Roma PL | 19.5% | 33% |
| GO Goiás | Dr Zacharias Calil MDB | 15.5% | 33% |
| AC Acre | Mara Rocha Republicanos | 16.6% | 33% |
| AL Alagoas | Arthur Lira PP | 26.9% | 67% |
| ES Espírito Santo | Fabiano Contarato PT | 13.1% | 32% |
| RN Rio Grande do Norte | Zenaide Maia PSD | 24.0% | 68% |
| AC Acre | Jorge Viana PT | 16.1% | 31% |
| AC Acre | Gladson Camelí PP | 24.0% | 69% |
| MT Mato Grosso | Zé Medeiros PL | 15.8% | 31% |
| RS Rio Grande do Sul | Pimenta PT | 16.3% | 30% |
| RR Roraima | Chico Rodrigues PSB | 16.6% | 30% |
| MA Maranhão | Roseana Sarney MDB | 24.2% | 70% |
| ES Espírito Santo | Sergio Meneguelli PSD | 12.9% | 30% |
| PA Pará | Chicão União Brasil | 16.0% | 29% |
| SC Santa Catarina | Carol de Toni PL | 26.0% | 71% |
| DF Federal District | Erika Kokay PT | 17.4% | 28% |
| MA Maranhão | Weverton Rocha PDT | 14.7% | 28% |
| BA Bahia | Angelo Coronel Republicanos | 18.0% | 27% |
| PB Paraíba | Veneziano MDB | 25.2% | 73% |
| RR Roraima | Teresa Surita MDB | 25.7% | 74% |
| CE Ceará | Cid Gomes PSB | 29.9% | 74% |
| PB Paraíba | Nabor Republicanos | 16.8% | 26% |
| AM Amazonas | Wilson Lima União Brasil | 17.5% | 26% |
Compared with the two senators elected in 2018, whose terms end. 45 of 54.
| State | Elected in 2018 | 2026 favorite | Chances | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES Espírito Santo | Fabiano Contarato REDE | Renato Casagrande PSB | 96% | Toss-up |
| MS Mato Grosso do Sul | Nelsinho Trad PTB | Reinaldo Azambuja PL | 91% | Likely |
| MT Mato Grosso | Jayme Campos DEM | Mauro Mendes União Brasil | 91% | Leans |
| RN Rio Grande do Norte | Capitão Styvenson REDE | Styvenson Valentim Podemos | 90% | Leans |
| AP Amapá | Randolfe REDE | Rayssa Furlan Podemos | 86% | Toss-up |
| AM Amazonas | Plinio Valerio PSDB | Eduardo Braga MDB | 85% | Leans |
| MS Mato Grosso do Sul | Soraya Thronicke PSL | Capitão Contar PL | 82% | Likely |
| RO Rondônia | Marcos Rogério DEM | Dr Fernando Máximo PL | 80% | Toss-up |
| TO Tocantins | Eduardo Gomes SOLIDARIEDADE | Eduardo Gomes PL | 80% | Toss-up |
| GO Goiás | Vanderlan PP | Gracinha Caiado União Brasil | 79% | Leans |
| DF Federal District | Leila do Vôlei PSB | Michelle Bolsonaro PL | 79% | Toss-up |
| PI Piauí | Ciro Nogueira PP | Marcelo Castro MDB | 79% | Toss-up |
| RJ Rio de Janeiro | Flávio Bolsonaro PSL | Benedita da Silva PT | 75% | Toss-up |
| CE Ceará | Cid Gomes PDT | Cid Gomes PSB | 74% | Toss-up |
| RR Roraima | Chico Rodrigues DEM | Teresa Surita MDB | 74% | Toss-up |
| PB Paraíba | Daniella Ribeiro PP | Veneziano MDB | 73% | Leans |
| MA Maranhão | Weverton PDT | Roseana Sarney MDB | 70% | Toss-up |
| AC Acre | Petecão PSD | Gladson Camelí PP | 69% | Toss-up |
| RN Rio Grande do Norte | Dr Zenaide Maia PHS | Zenaide Maia PSD | 68% | Leans |
| PE Pernambuco | Jarbas MDB | Humberto Costa PT | 66% | Leans |
| AL Alagoas | Renan MDB | Marina JHC PSDB | 65% | Toss-up |
| GO Goiás | Jorge Kajuru PRP | Gustavo Gayer PL | 64% | Leans |
| MG Minas Gerais | Rodrigo Pacheco DEM | Marília Campos PT | 63% | Toss-up |
| MT Mato Grosso | Fávaro PSD | Janaina Riva MDB | 62% | Leans |
| PR Paraná | Professor Oriovisto Guimaraes Podemos | Deltan Dallagnol Novo | 61% | Toss-up |
| BA Bahia | Angelo Coronel PSD | Jaques Wagner PT | 60% | Leans |
| RR Roraima | Mecias de Jesus PRB | Nicoletti PL | 59% | Toss-up |
| RS Rio Grande do Sul | Luis Carlos Heinze PP | Marcel van Hattem Novo | 59% | Toss-up |
| AC Acre | Márcio Bittar MDB | Marcio Bittar PL | 58% | Toss-up |
| SC Santa Catarina | Jorginho Mello PR | Esperidião Amin PP | 57% | Toss-up |
| PA Pará | Zequinha Marinho PSC | Delegado Éder Mauro PL | 57% | Toss-up |
| SP São Paulo | Major Olimpio PSL | Guilherme Derrite PP | 55% | Toss-up |
| CE Ceará | Eduardo Girão PROS | Capitão Wagner União Brasil | 54% | Toss-up |
| SP São Paulo | Mara Gabrilli PSDB | Marina Silva REDE | 52% | Toss-up |
| SE Sergipe | Delegado Alessandro Vieira REDE | Delegado André David Republicanos | 52% | Toss-up |
| RS Rio Grande do Sul | Paulo Paim PT | Manuela d'Ávila PSOL | 51% | Toss-up |
| DF Federal District | Izalci PSDB | Leila do Vôlei PDT | 50% | Toss-up |
| AP Amapá | Lucas Barreto PTB | Randolfe PT | 48% | Toss-up |
| MG Minas Gerais | Jornalista Carlos Viana PHS | Carlos Viana PSD | 47% | Toss-up |
| RO Rondônia | Confucio Moura MDB | Bruno Scheid PL | 46% | Toss-up |
| TO Tocantins | Irajá PSD | Alexandre Guimarães MDB | 46% | Toss-up |
| PR Paraná | Flavio Arns REDE | Filipe Barros PL | 45% | Toss-up |
| MA Maranhão | Eliziane Gama PPS | Fufuca PP | 44% | Toss-up |
| RJ Rio de Janeiro | Arolde de Oliveira PSD | Carlos Jordy PL | 42% | Toss-up |
| ES Espírito Santo | Marcos do Val PPS | Fabiano Contarato PT | 32% | Toss-up |
Polls published since July 3, from the least to the best covered states.
| State | Polls | Pollsters | Latest | Days | Registered with TSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roraima | 7 | 5 | 24/09 | 8 | 87% |
| Paraíba | 12 | 9 | 27/09 | 5 | 96% |
| Rondônia | 12 | 6 | 29/09 | 3 | 96% |
| Mato Grosso | 16 | 8 | 29/09 | 3 | 83% |
| Rio Grande do Sul | 16 | 9 | 28/09 | 4 | 88% |
| Santa Catarina | 16 | 9 | 30/09 | 2 | 87% |
| Amapá | 17 | 7 | 29/09 | 3 | >99% |
| Amazonas | 19 | 15 | 29/09 | 3 | 82% |
| Mato Grosso do Sul | 20 | 9 | 30/09 | 2 | 94% |
| Maranhão | 21 | 10 | 24/09 | 8 | 93% |
| Piauí | 21 | 11 | 28/09 | 4 | 84% |
| Bahia | 22 | 12 | 28/09 | 4 | 86% |
| Espírito Santo | 22 | 8 | 29/09 | 3 | 96% |
| Tocantins | 22 | 11 | 25/09 | 7 | >99% |
| Sergipe | 23 | 14 | 26/09 | 6 | 96% |
| Acre | 25 | 12 | 29/09 | 3 | 70% |
| Rio de Janeiro | 25 | 9 | 01/10 | 1 | 92% |
| Goiás | 26 | 12 | 27/09 | 5 | 94% |
| Minas Gerais | 26 | 10 | 01/10 | 1 | 93% |
| Pará | 26 | 12 | 28/09 | 4 | 81% |
| Ceará | 27 | 10 | 28/09 | 4 | 80% |
| Alagoas | 28 | 12 | 29/09 | 3 | 93% |
| Federal District | 33 | 13 | 01/10 | 1 | 85% |
| Rio Grande do Norte | 34 | 23 | 28/09 | 4 | 84% |
| São Paulo | 35 | 15 | 30/09 | 2 | 89% |
| Pernambuco | 38 | 19 | 01/10 | 1 | 94% |
| Paraná | 38 | 11 | 01/10 | 1 | 99% |
| State | First | Second | Second’s chances | Third’s chances | Rating | Elected in 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acre | Gladson Camelí PP | Marcio Bittar PL | 58% | 33% | Toss-up | Petecão PSD Márcio Bittar MDB |
| Alagoas | Arthur Lira PP | Marina JHC PSDB | 65% | 52% | Toss-up | Rodrigo Cunha PSDB Renan MDB |
| Amazonas | Eduardo Braga MDB | Capitão Alberto Neto PL | 66% | 26% | Leans | Plinio Valerio PSDB Eduardo Braga MDB |
| Amapá | Rayssa Furlan Podemos | Randolfe PT | 48% | 43% | Toss-up | Randolfe REDE Lucas Barreto PTB |
| Bahia | Rui Costa PT | Jaques Wagner PT | 60% | 33% | Leans | Jaques Wagner PT Angelo Coronel PSD |
| Ceará | Cid Gomes PSB | Capitão Wagner União Brasil | 54% | 52% | Toss-up | Cid Gomes PDT Eduardo Girão PROS |
| Federal District | Michelle Bolsonaro PL | Leila do Vôlei PDT | 50% | 41% | Toss-up | Leila do Vôlei PSB Izalci PSDB |
| Espírito Santo | Renato Casagrande PSB | Fabiano Contarato PT | 32% | 30% | Toss-up | Fabiano Contarato REDE Marcos do Val PPS |
| Goiás | Gracinha Caiado União Brasil | Gustavo Gayer PL | 64% | 33% | Leans | Vanderlan PP Jorge Kajuru PRP |
| Maranhão | Roseana Sarney MDB | Fufuca PP | 44% | 36% | Toss-up | Weverton PDT Eliziane Gama PPS |
| Minas Gerais | Marília Campos PT | Carlos Viana PSD | 47% | 37% | Toss-up | Rodrigo Pacheco DEM Jornalista Carlos Viana PHS |
| Mato Grosso do Sul | Reinaldo Azambuja PL | Capitão Contar PL | 82% | 18% | Likely | Nelsinho Trad PTB Soraya Thronicke PSL |
| Mato Grosso | Mauro Mendes União Brasil | Janaina Riva MDB | 62% | 31% | Leans | Jayme Campos DEM Fávaro PSD |
| Pará | Helder MDB | Delegado Éder Mauro PL | 57% | 29% | Toss-up | Jader Barbalho MDB Zequinha Marinho PSC |
| Paraíba | Joao Azevêdo PSB | Veneziano MDB | 73% | 26% | Leans | Veneziano PSB Daniella Ribeiro PP |
| Pernambuco | Marília Arraes PDT | Humberto Costa PT | 66% | 34% | Leans | Humberto Costa PT Jarbas MDB |
| Piauí | Marcelo Castro MDB | Júlio César o Julim do Lula PSD | 60% | 56% | Toss-up | Ciro Nogueira PP Marcelo Castro MDB |
| Paraná | Deltan Dallagnol Novo | Filipe Barros PL | 45% | 43% | Toss-up | Professor Oriovisto Guimaraes Podemos Flavio Arns REDE |
| Rio de Janeiro | Benedita da Silva PT | Carlos Jordy PL | 42% | 36% | Toss-up | Flávio Bolsonaro PSL Arolde de Oliveira PSD |
| Rio Grande do Norte | Styvenson Valentim Podemos | Zenaide Maia PSD | 68% | 17% | Leans | Capitão Styvenson REDE Dr Zenaide Maia PHS |
| Rondônia | Dr Fernando Máximo PL | Bruno Scheid PL | 46% | 45% | Toss-up | Marcos Rogério DEM Confucio Moura MDB |
| Roraima | Teresa Surita MDB | Nicoletti PL | 59% | 36% | Toss-up | Chico Rodrigues DEM Mecias de Jesus PRB |
| Rio Grande do Sul | Marcel van Hattem Novo | Manuela d'Ávila PSOL | 51% | 39% | Toss-up | Luis Carlos Heinze PP Paulo Paim PT |
| Santa Catarina | Carol de Toni PL | Esperidião Amin PP | 57% | 52% | Toss-up | Esperidião Amin PP Jorginho Mello PR |
| Sergipe | Delegado André David Republicanos | Rogerio Carvalho PT | 40% | 40% | Toss-up | Delegado Alessandro Vieira REDE Rogerio Carvalho Santos PT |
| São Paulo | Guilherme Derrite PP | Marina Silva REDE | 52% | 50% | Toss-up | Major Olimpio PSL Mara Gabrilli PSDB |
| Tocantins | Eduardo Gomes PL | Alexandre Guimarães MDB | 46% | 37% | Toss-up | Eduardo Gomes SOLIDARIEDADE Irajá PSD |
A predictive model is not one more poll. A poll interviews a sample and describes opinion at a given moment. A model interviews no one. It gathers what can be measured, published surveys, past election results and the electoral rules, and derives from them a distribution of possible outcomes, with their probability. It does not say a party will win so many seats. It says within which range it will finish, and what each candidate’s chances of election are.
Two pollsters published on the same day can differ by several points. The model aggregates every survey published in each state and registered with the Superior Electoral Court, taking into account their age, their size and the pollsters’ reliability.
Polls get it wrong, sometimes badly. The model builds in the size of the errors seen in past elections, without assuming in advance that one side will be underestimated. That is what gives each candidate their chances, and each list its range.
For each state, the model starts from the published polls. A governor is elected in the first round with over half the valid votes, otherwise a runoff takes place on October 25: the model simulates both. In the Senate, each voter has two votes and the top two are elected, in a single round.
A single forecast would give a false sense of certainty. The model therefore replays each race twenty thousand times, varying what is genuinely uncertain. The probability shown is the share of simulations in which the event occurs.
Uncertainty is this model’s product, never its flaw. The simulations are reproducible, and the forecast on the eve of the vote is frozen, then compared with the official results.
Election results and candidacies: Superior Electoral Court. 2026 polls: surveys published by pollsters and registered with the Superior Electoral Court.
Export senat_2026.csv ↗ · Export the forecasts as JSON ↗
All rights belong to Le Millénaire SAS, 47 rue de Vivienne, 75002 Paris.
Model designed by
Project director: William Thay
Deputy project director: Pierre Clairé
Political analysis and data: Matthieu Hocque
Data analysis, mathematics and validation: Florian Gérard-Mercier