Forecast - US midterm elections 2026: House of Representatives

OverviewHouse of RepresentativesSenateGovernors
FrançaisEnglishEspañolDeutsch
Democrats heavily favored to retake the House of Representatives
Le Millénaire · 200,000 simulations · · election on November 3, 2026
Chances of controlling the House of Representatives
D
Democrats
94.8%
House majority
239.4
expected seats · 90%: 217 to 264
R
Republicans
5.2%
House majority
195.6
expected seats · 90%: 171 to 218

Majority at 218 seats out of 435. Generic Ballot (likely voters): D +7.35. Probabilities conditional on a Democrat-versus-Republican contest in each district. Updated October 3, 2026.

The engine produces the 435 predictive distributions and the national balance of power. It is recomputed every day with the latest polls. The probabilities assume a Democrat-versus-Republican contest in each district: uncontested seats, same-party contests and third parties are not modeled. This is a provisional forecast, not a scientific certification.

Calculation: October 3, 2026 · Polls: October 3, 2026Updates and availability ↘

The results below are embedded in the file. To use search, zoom and the interactive maps, open this HTML in a browser that allows JavaScript.

Democrats · simulated seats239.490% interval: 217–264
Majority: 94.79%
Republicans · simulated seats195.690% interval: 171–218
Majority: 5.21%
Generic Ballot V3 · LVD +7.35D−R margin · October 3, 2026
435 seats · majority at 218

Conditional D/R results. Calculation of October 3, 2026; polls taken into account through October 3, 2026.

Read the seat distribution ↘
EXPLORE THE HOUSE

The 435 districts

02 EXPLORE A DISTRICT KEEP A BOOKMARK
United States · 435 districts · same selection in both maps
435 embedded forecasts · map colored by the engine's probabilities.
P(D) · conditional model
Safe RLikely RLean RToss-upLean DLikely DSafe D
AK-00 · D/R model · P(D) 58.0% · P(R) 42.0%AL-01 · D/R model · P(D) 0.1% · P(R) 99.9%AL-02 · D/R model · P(D) 26.6% · P(R) 73.4%AL-03 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%AL-04 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%AL-05 · D/R model · P(D) 1.0% · P(R) 99.0%AL-06 · D/R model · P(D) 0.1% · P(R) 99.9%AL-07 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%AR-01 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%AR-02 · D/R model · P(D) 18.6% · P(R) 81.4%AR-03 · D/R model · P(D) 0.5% · P(R) 99.5%AR-04 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%AZ-01 · D/R model · P(D) 68.0% · P(R) 32.0%AZ-02 · D/R model · P(D) 34.3% · P(R) 65.7%AZ-03 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%AZ-04 · D/R model · P(D) 94.4% · P(R) 5.6%AZ-05 · D/R model · P(D) 10.0% · P(R) 90.0%AZ-06 · D/R model · P(D) 82.9% · P(R) 17.1%AZ-07 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%AZ-08 · D/R model · P(D) 26.5% · P(R) 73.5%AZ-09 · D/R model · P(D) 0.5% · P(R) 99.5%CA-01 · D/R model · P(D) 99.1% · P(R) 0.9%CA-02 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%CA-03 · D/R model · P(D) 98.4% · P(R) 1.6%CA-04 · D/R model · P(D) 99.6% · P(R) 0.4%CA-05 · D/R model · P(D) 4.9% · P(R) 95.1%CA-06 · D/R model · P(D) 97.3% · P(R) 2.7%CA-07 · D/R model · P(D) 99.5% · P(R) 0.5%CA-08 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%CA-09 · D/R model · P(D) 99.5% · P(R) 0.5%CA-10 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%CA-11 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%CA-12 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%CA-13 · D/R model · P(D) 91.0% · P(R) 9.0%CA-14 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%CA-15 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%CA-16 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%CA-17 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%CA-18 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%CA-19 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%CA-20 · D/R model · P(D) 0.3% · P(R) 99.7%CA-21 · D/R model · P(D) 96.1% · P(R) 3.9%CA-22 · D/R model · P(D) 77.3% · P(R) 22.7%CA-23 · D/R model · P(D) 8.2% · P(R) 91.8%CA-24 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%CA-25 · D/R model · P(D) 98.6% · P(R) 1.4%CA-26 · D/R model · P(D) 99.7% · P(R) 0.3%CA-27 · D/R model · P(D) 98.0% · P(R) 2.0%CA-28 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%CA-29 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%CA-30 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%CA-31 · D/R model · P(D) 99.4% · P(R) 0.6%CA-32 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%CA-33 · D/R model · P(D) 99.6% · P(R) 0.4%CA-34 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%CA-35 · D/R model · P(D) 98.5% · P(R) 1.5%CA-36 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%CA-37 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%CA-38 · D/R model · P(D) 99.3% · P(R) 0.7%CA-39 · D/R model · P(D) 98.9% · P(R) 1.1%CA-40 · D/R model · P(D) 28.5% · P(R) 71.5%CA-41 · D/R model · P(D) 99.7% · P(R) 0.3%CA-42 · D/R model · P(D) 99.5% · P(R) 0.5%CA-43 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%CA-44 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%CA-45 · D/R model · P(D) 91.8% · P(R) 8.2%CA-46 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%CA-47 · D/R model · P(D) 98.0% · P(R) 2.0%CA-48 · D/R model · P(D) 91.7% · P(R) 8.3%CA-49 · D/R model · P(D) 98.7% · P(R) 1.3%CA-50 · D/R model · P(D) 99.9% · P(R) 0.1%CA-51 · D/R model · P(D) 99.9% · P(R) 0.1%CA-52 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%CO-01 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%CO-02 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%CO-03 · D/R model · P(D) 49.2% · P(R) 50.8%CO-04 · D/R model · P(D) 40.4% · P(R) 59.6%CO-05 · D/R model · P(D) 46.9% · P(R) 53.1%CO-06 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%CO-07 · D/R model · P(D) 99.8% · P(R) 0.2%CO-08 · D/R model · P(D) 83.9% · P(R) 16.1%CT-01 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%CT-02 · D/R model · P(D) 99.2% · P(R) 0.8%CT-03 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%CT-04 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%CT-05 · D/R model · P(D) 90.7% · P(R) 9.3%DE-00 · D/R model · P(D) 99.7% · P(R) 0.3%FL-01 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%FL-02 · D/R model · P(D) 12.6% · P(R) 87.4%FL-03 · D/R model · P(D) 6.5% · P(R) 93.5%FL-04 · D/R model · P(D) 30.6% · P(R) 69.4%FL-05 · D/R model · P(D) 4.3% · P(R) 95.7%FL-06 · D/R model · P(D) 0.7% · P(R) 99.3%FL-07 · D/R model · P(D) 33.4% · P(R) 66.6%FL-08 · D/R model · P(D) 17.6% · P(R) 82.4%FL-09 · D/R model · P(D) 24.8% · P(R) 75.2%FL-10 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%FL-11 · D/R model · P(D) 20.3% · P(R) 79.7%FL-12 · D/R model · P(D) 18.5% · P(R) 81.5%FL-13 · D/R model · P(D) 35.1% · P(R) 64.9%FL-14 · D/R model · P(D) 47.0% · P(R) 53.0%FL-15 · D/R model · P(D) 9.1% · P(R) 90.9%FL-16 · D/R model · P(D) 28.5% · P(R) 71.5%FL-17 · D/R model · P(D) 4.4% · P(R) 95.6%FL-18 · D/R model · P(D) 17.4% · P(R) 82.6%FL-19 · D/R model · P(D) 0.6% · P(R) 99.4%FL-20 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%FL-21 · D/R model · P(D) 9.9% · P(R) 90.1%FL-22 · D/R model · P(D) 43.8% · P(R) 56.2%FL-23 · D/R model · P(D) 99.8% · P(R) 0.2%FL-24 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%FL-25 · D/R model · P(D) 54.3% · P(R) 45.7%FL-26 · D/R model · P(D) 9.4% · P(R) 90.6%FL-27 · D/R model · P(D) 15.2% · P(R) 84.8%FL-28 · D/R model · P(D) 1.8% · P(R) 98.2%GA-01 · D/R model · P(D) 6.9% · P(R) 93.1%GA-02 · D/R model · P(D) 99.0% · P(R) 1.0%GA-03 · D/R model · P(D) 0.4% · P(R) 99.6%GA-04 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%GA-05 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%GA-06 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%GA-07 · D/R model · P(D) 1.9% · P(R) 98.1%GA-08 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%GA-09 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%GA-10 · D/R model · P(D) 1.1% · P(R) 98.9%GA-11 · D/R model · P(D) 1.6% · P(R) 98.4%GA-12 · D/R model · P(D) 7.9% · P(R) 92.1%GA-13 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%GA-14 · D/R model · P(D) 0.4% · P(R) 99.6%HI-01 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%HI-02 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%IA-01 · D/R model · P(D) 77.5% · P(R) 22.5%IA-02 · D/R model · P(D) 38.6% · P(R) 61.4%IA-03 · D/R model · P(D) 80.3% · P(R) 19.7%IA-04 · D/R model · P(D) 0.2% · P(R) 99.8%ID-01 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%ID-02 · D/R model · P(D) 0.7% · P(R) 99.3%IL-01 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%IL-02 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%IL-03 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%IL-04 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%IL-05 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%IL-06 · D/R model · P(D) 96.6% · P(R) 3.4%IL-07 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%IL-08 · D/R model · P(D) 97.1% · P(R) 2.9%IL-09 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%IL-10 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%IL-11 · D/R model · P(D) 98.9% · P(R) 1.1%IL-12 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%IL-13 · D/R model · P(D) 99.7% · P(R) 0.3%IL-14 · D/R model · P(D) 97.5% · P(R) 2.5%IL-15 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%IL-16 · D/R model · P(D) 5.6% · P(R) 94.4%IL-17 · D/R model · P(D) 95.6% · P(R) 4.4%IN-01 · D/R model · P(D) 93.5% · P(R) 6.5%IN-02 · D/R model · P(D) 0.5% · P(R) 99.5%IN-03 · D/R model · P(D) 0.3% · P(R) 99.7%IN-04 · D/R model · P(D) 0.3% · P(R) 99.7%IN-05 · D/R model · P(D) 15.6% · P(R) 84.4%IN-06 · D/R model · P(D) 0.3% · P(R) 99.7%IN-07 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%IN-08 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%IN-09 · D/R model · P(D) 0.5% · P(R) 99.5%KS-01 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%KS-02 · D/R model · P(D) 11.9% · P(R) 88.1%KS-03 · D/R model · P(D) 99.2% · P(R) 0.8%KS-04 · D/R model · P(D) 2.7% · P(R) 97.3%KY-01 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%KY-02 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%KY-03 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%KY-04 · D/R model · P(D) 0.1% · P(R) 99.9%KY-05 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%KY-06 · D/R model · P(D) 17.9% · P(R) 82.1%LA-01 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%LA-02 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%LA-03 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%LA-04 · D/R model · P(D) 0.2% · P(R) 99.8%LA-05 · D/R model · P(D) 0.1% · P(R) 99.9%LA-06 · D/R model · P(D) 0.7% · P(R) 99.3%MA-01 · D/R model · P(D) 99.5% · P(R) 0.5%MA-02 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%MA-03 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%MA-04 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%MA-05 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%MA-06 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%MA-07 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%MA-08 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%MA-09 · D/R model · P(D) 97.7% · P(R) 2.3%MD-01 · D/R model · P(D) 9.3% · P(R) 90.7%MD-02 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%MD-03 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%MD-04 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%MD-05 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%MD-06 · D/R model · P(D) 98.6% · P(R) 1.4%MD-07 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%MD-08 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%ME-01 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%ME-02 · D/R model · P(D) 44.8% · P(R) 55.2%MI-01 · D/R model · P(D) 12.4% · P(R) 87.6%MI-02 · D/R model · P(D) 0.2% · P(R) 99.8%MI-03 · D/R model · P(D) 96.9% · P(R) 3.1%MI-04 · D/R model · P(D) 54.4% · P(R) 45.6%MI-05 · D/R model · P(D) 0.3% · P(R) 99.7%MI-06 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%MI-07 · D/R model · P(D) 72.9% · P(R) 27.1%MI-08 · D/R model · P(D) 98.0% · P(R) 2.0%MI-09 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%MI-10 · D/R model · P(D) 53.3% · P(R) 46.7%MI-11 · D/R model · P(D) 99.9% · P(R) 0.1%MI-12 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%MI-13 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%MN-01 · D/R model · P(D) 31.9% · P(R) 68.1%MN-02 · D/R model · P(D) 95.6% · P(R) 4.4%MN-03 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%MN-04 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%MN-05 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%MN-06 · D/R model · P(D) 3.6% · P(R) 96.4%MN-07 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%MN-08 · D/R model · P(D) 19.9% · P(R) 80.1%MO-01 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%MO-02 · D/R model · P(D) 42.9% · P(R) 57.1%MO-03 · D/R model · P(D) 2.1% · P(R) 97.9%MO-04 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%MO-05 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%MO-06 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%MO-07 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%MO-08 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%MS-01 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%MS-02 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%MS-03 · D/R model · P(D) 1.0% · P(R) 99.0%MS-04 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%MT-01 · D/R model · P(D) 37.9% · P(R) 62.1%MT-02 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%NC-01 · D/R model · P(D) 50.1% · P(R) 49.9%NC-02 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%NC-03 · D/R model · P(D) 29.1% · P(R) 70.9%NC-04 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%NC-05 · D/R model · P(D) 14.1% · P(R) 85.9%NC-06 · D/R model · P(D) 17.0% · P(R) 83.0%NC-07 · D/R model · P(D) 21.9% · P(R) 78.1%NC-08 · D/R model · P(D) 12.0% · P(R) 88.0%NC-09 · D/R model · P(D) 15.1% · P(R) 84.9%NC-10 · D/R model · P(D) 12.4% · P(R) 87.6%NC-11 · D/R model · P(D) 43.6% · P(R) 56.4%NC-12 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%NC-13 · D/R model · P(D) 18.1% · P(R) 81.9%NC-14 · D/R model · P(D) 22.1% · P(R) 77.9%ND-00 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%NE-01 · D/R model · P(D) 17.2% · P(R) 82.8%NE-02 · D/R model · P(D) 90.5% · P(R) 9.5%NE-03 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%NH-01 · D/R model · P(D) 90.5% · P(R) 9.5%NH-02 · D/R model · P(D) 93.6% · P(R) 6.4%NJ-01 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%NJ-02 · D/R model · P(D) 20.2% · P(R) 79.8%NJ-03 · D/R model · P(D) 97.2% · P(R) 2.8%NJ-04 · D/R model · P(D) 0.1% · P(R) 99.9%NJ-05 · D/R model · P(D) 98.6% · P(R) 1.4%NJ-06 · D/R model · P(D) 99.1% · P(R) 0.9%NJ-07 · D/R model · P(D) 77.9% · P(R) 22.1%NJ-08 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%NJ-09 · D/R model · P(D) 90.2% · P(R) 9.8%NJ-10 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%NJ-11 · D/R model · P(D) 96.2% · P(R) 3.8%NJ-12 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%NM-01 · D/R model · P(D) 99.1% · P(R) 0.9%NM-02 · D/R model · P(D) 84.2% · P(R) 15.8%NM-03 · D/R model · P(D) 96.1% · P(R) 3.9%NV-01 · D/R model · P(D) 88.3% · P(R) 11.7%NV-02 · D/R model · P(D) 27.2% · P(R) 72.8%NV-03 · D/R model · P(D) 87.3% · P(R) 12.7%NV-04 · D/R model · P(D) 92.8% · P(R) 7.2%NY-01 · D/R model · P(D) 56.9% · P(R) 43.1%NY-02 · D/R model · P(D) 24.8% · P(R) 75.2%NY-03 · D/R model · P(D) 90.8% · P(R) 9.2%NY-04 · D/R model · P(D) 95.8% · P(R) 4.2%NY-05 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%NY-06 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%NY-07 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%NY-08 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%NY-09 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%NY-10 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%NY-11 · D/R model · P(D) 2.2% · P(R) 97.8%NY-12 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%NY-13 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%NY-14 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%NY-15 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%NY-16 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%NY-17 · D/R model · P(D) 84.1% · P(R) 15.9%NY-18 · D/R model · P(D) 99.2% · P(R) 0.8%NY-19 · D/R model · P(D) 90.3% · P(R) 9.7%NY-20 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%NY-21 · D/R model · P(D) 37.7% · P(R) 62.3%NY-22 · D/R model · P(D) 97.9% · P(R) 2.1%NY-23 · D/R model · P(D) 4.6% · P(R) 95.4%NY-24 · D/R model · P(D) 3.0% · P(R) 97.0%NY-25 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%NY-26 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%OH-01 · D/R model · P(D) 80.4% · P(R) 19.6%OH-02 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%OH-03 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%OH-04 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%OH-05 · D/R model · P(D) 2.5% · P(R) 97.5%OH-06 · D/R model · P(D) 0.2% · P(R) 99.8%OH-07 · D/R model · P(D) 26.3% · P(R) 73.7%OH-08 · D/R model · P(D) 19.5% · P(R) 80.5%OH-09 · D/R model · P(D) 58.5% · P(R) 41.5%OH-10 · D/R model · P(D) 26.0% · P(R) 74.0%OH-11 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%OH-12 · D/R model · P(D) 0.4% · P(R) 99.6%OH-13 · D/R model · P(D) 93.1% · P(R) 6.9%OH-14 · D/R model · P(D) 3.4% · P(R) 96.6%OH-15 · D/R model · P(D) 36.9% · P(R) 63.1%OK-01 · D/R model · P(D) 3.6% · P(R) 96.4%OK-02 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%OK-03 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%OK-04 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%OK-05 · D/R model · P(D) 12.6% · P(R) 87.4%OR-01 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%OR-02 · D/R model · P(D) 0.7% · P(R) 99.3%OR-03 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%OR-04 · D/R model · P(D) 97.0% · P(R) 3.0%OR-05 · D/R model · P(D) 94.0% · P(R) 6.0%OR-06 · D/R model · P(D) 99.3% · P(R) 0.7%PA-01 · D/R model · P(D) 61.3% · P(R) 38.7%PA-02 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%PA-03 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%PA-04 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%PA-05 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%PA-06 · D/R model · P(D) 98.4% · P(R) 1.6%PA-07 · D/R model · P(D) 81.2% · P(R) 18.8%PA-08 · D/R model · P(D) 75.6% · P(R) 24.4%PA-09 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%PA-10 · D/R model · P(D) 80.1% · P(R) 19.9%PA-11 · D/R model · P(D) 5.3% · P(R) 94.7%PA-12 · D/R model · P(D) 99.8% · P(R) 0.2%PA-13 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%PA-14 · D/R model · P(D) 0.2% · P(R) 99.8%PA-15 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%PA-16 · D/R model · P(D) 2.3% · P(R) 97.7%PA-17 · D/R model · P(D) 96.7% · P(R) 3.3%RI-01 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%RI-02 · D/R model · P(D) 99.6% · P(R) 0.4%SC-01 · D/R model · P(D) 33.0% · P(R) 67.0%SC-02 · D/R model · P(D) 17.9% · P(R) 82.1%SC-03 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%SC-04 · D/R model · P(D) 1.6% · P(R) 98.4%SC-05 · D/R model · P(D) 2.4% · P(R) 97.6%SC-06 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%SC-07 · D/R model · P(D) 1.2% · P(R) 98.8%SD-00 · D/R model · P(D) 0.4% · P(R) 99.6%TN-01 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%TN-02 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%TN-03 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%TN-04 · D/R model · P(D) 4.0% · P(R) 96.0%TN-05 · D/R model · P(D) 5.1% · P(R) 94.9%TN-06 · D/R model · P(D) 2.2% · P(R) 97.8%TN-07 · D/R model · P(D) 6.1% · P(R) 93.9%TN-08 · D/R model · P(D) 6.5% · P(R) 93.5%TN-09 · D/R model · P(D) 7.9% · P(R) 92.1%TX-01 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%TX-02 · D/R model · P(D) 4.2% · P(R) 95.8%TX-03 · D/R model · P(D) 2.7% · P(R) 97.3%TX-04 · D/R model · P(D) 2.2% · P(R) 97.8%TX-05 · D/R model · P(D) 6.7% · P(R) 93.3%TX-06 · D/R model · P(D) 4.1% · P(R) 95.9%TX-07 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%TX-08 · D/R model · P(D) 1.5% · P(R) 98.5%TX-09 · D/R model · P(D) 11.8% · P(R) 88.2%TX-10 · D/R model · P(D) 5.0% · P(R) 95.0%TX-11 · D/R model · P(D) 0.2% · P(R) 99.8%TX-12 · D/R model · P(D) 2.8% · P(R) 97.2%TX-13 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%TX-14 · D/R model · P(D) 2.7% · P(R) 97.3%TX-15 · D/R model · P(D) 18.9% · P(R) 81.1%TX-16 · D/R model · P(D) 99.9% · P(R) 0.1%TX-17 · D/R model · P(D) 5.4% · P(R) 94.6%TX-18 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%TX-19 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%TX-20 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%TX-21 · D/R model · P(D) 6.3% · P(R) 93.7%TX-22 · D/R model · P(D) 5.2% · P(R) 94.8%TX-23 · D/R model · P(D) 19.9% · P(R) 80.1%TX-24 · D/R model · P(D) 13.3% · P(R) 86.7%TX-25 · D/R model · P(D) 4.1% · P(R) 95.9%TX-26 · D/R model · P(D) 2.8% · P(R) 97.2%TX-27 · D/R model · P(D) 6.7% · P(R) 93.3%TX-28 · D/R model · P(D) 61.5% · P(R) 38.5%TX-29 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%TX-30 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%TX-31 · D/R model · P(D) 3.4% · P(R) 96.6%TX-32 · D/R model · P(D) 14.3% · P(R) 85.7%TX-33 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%TX-34 · D/R model · P(D) 54.4% · P(R) 45.6%TX-35 · D/R model · P(D) 47.3% · P(R) 52.7%TX-36 · D/R model · P(D) 2.8% · P(R) 97.2%TX-37 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%TX-38 · D/R model · P(D) 7.0% · P(R) 93.0%UT-01 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%UT-02 · D/R model · P(D) 0.1% · P(R) 99.9%UT-03 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%UT-04 · D/R model · P(D) 0.2% · P(R) 99.8%VA-01 · D/R model · P(D) 51.5% · P(R) 48.5%VA-02 · D/R model · P(D) 79.8% · P(R) 20.2%VA-03 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%VA-04 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%VA-05 · D/R model · P(D) 38.8% · P(R) 61.2%VA-06 · D/R model · P(D) 4.3% · P(R) 95.7%VA-07 · D/R model · P(D) 93.1% · P(R) 6.9%VA-08 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%VA-09 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%VA-10 · D/R model · P(D) 96.3% · P(R) 3.7%VA-11 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%VT-00 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%WA-01 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%WA-02 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%WA-03 · D/R model · P(D) 79.4% · P(R) 20.6%WA-04 · D/R model · P(D) 8.3% · P(R) 91.7%WA-05 · D/R model · P(D) 16.5% · P(R) 83.5%WA-06 · D/R model · P(D) 99.9% · P(R) 0.1%WA-07 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%WA-08 · D/R model · P(D) 98.1% · P(R) 1.9%WA-09 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%WA-10 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%WI-01 · D/R model · P(D) 49.2% · P(R) 50.8%WI-02 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%WI-03 · D/R model · P(D) 72.8% · P(R) 27.2%WI-04 · D/R model · P(D) ≥ 99.9% · P(R) ≤ 0.1%WI-05 · D/R model · P(D) 0.8% · P(R) 99.2%WI-06 · D/R model · P(D) 8.8% · P(R) 91.2%WI-07 · D/R model · P(D) 3.1% · P(R) 96.9%WI-08 · D/R model · P(D) 15.5% · P(R) 84.5%WV-01 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%WV-02 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%WY-00 · D/R model · P(D) ≤ 0.1% · P(R) ≥ 99.9%
01NAVIGATE 100%
Tap a district for its sheet. Enable the pan tool to move the map with your finger.

One square = one seat. Grouping by state is schematic. The “Geographic map” button shows district boundaries; both views open the same sheets.

Geographic sources and vintages ↗Source of the reference values ↗
DIRECT ACCESS

Explore a state

Alphabetical shortcuts to four states; no electoral ranking.
THE HOUSE AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL

Democrats and Republicans

200,000 simulations · D/R conditionnel
Conditional D/R simulation. The figures assume each district is won by D or R. Uncontested cases, same-party contests and third parties are not certified in this calculation. Uncertainty is estimated on three cycles; the probability of control of the whole House has no complete historical validation.
D

Democrats

239.4

mean simulated seats

90% interval
217 – 264 seats
House control
94.79%
ABSOLUTE MAJORITY218out of 435 seats

Threshold applied to each of the 200,000 draws.

R

Republicans

195.6

mean simulated seats

90% interval
171 – 218 seats
House control
5.21%

The House split

EXPECTED SEATS · SAME DRAWS
D 239.4R 195.6
0 Democratic seatThreshold: 218435 seats

Who wins the majority?

Democratic majority: 94.79% · Republican majority: 5.21%

The seat distribution

0.0%1.0%1.9%2.9%180 seats: 0.00% (1 draws)186 seats: 0.00% (1 draws)188 seats: 0.00% (1 draws)189 seats: 0.00% (2 draws)190 seats: 0.00% (2 draws)191 seats: 0.00% (5 draws)192 seats: 0.00% (5 draws)193 seats: 0.00% (9 draws)194 seats: 0.01% (18 draws)195 seats: 0.01% (13 draws)196 seats: 0.01% (27 draws)197 seats: 0.01% (29 draws)198 seats: 0.02% (41 draws)199 seats: 0.02% (38 draws)200 seats: 0.03% (52 draws)201 seats: 0.04% (80 draws)202 seats: 0.04% (85 draws)203 seats: 0.06% (121 draws)204 seats: 0.09% (171 draws)205 seats: 0.10% (208 draws)206 seats: 0.12% (238 draws)207 seats: 0.15% (301 draws)208 seats: 0.19% (385 draws)209 seats: 0.22% (443 draws)210 seats: 0.27% (532 draws)211 seats: 0.34% (681 draws)212 seats: 0.37% (736 draws)213 seats: 0.46% (928 draws)214 seats: 0.52% (1040 draws)215 seats: 0.60% (1195 draws)216 seats: 0.72% (1437 draws)217 seats: 0.80% (1597 draws)218 seats: 0.94% (1872 draws)219 seats: 1.01% (2023 draws)220 seats: 1.18% (2352 draws)221 seats: 1.26% (2528 draws)222 seats: 1.42% (2834 draws)223 seats: 1.59% (3172 draws)224 seats: 1.65% (3304 draws)225 seats: 1.82% (3644 draws)226 seats: 1.96% (3923 draws)227 seats: 2.06% (4123 draws)228 seats: 2.23% (4454 draws)229 seats: 2.35% (4704 draws)230 seats: 2.48% (4963 draws)231 seats: 2.55% (5106 draws)232 seats: 2.66% (5326 draws)233 seats: 2.71% (5411 draws)234 seats: 2.78% (5567 draws)235 seats: 2.85% (5693 draws)236 seats: 2.83% (5654 draws)237 seats: 2.86% (5725 draws)238 seats: 2.87% (5739 draws)239 seats: 2.82% (5636 draws)240 seats: 2.81% (5617 draws)241 seats: 2.77% (5543 draws)242 seats: 2.81% (5621 draws)243 seats: 2.64% (5289 draws)244 seats: 2.56% (5115 draws)245 seats: 2.49% (4977 draws)246 seats: 2.46% (4918 draws)247 seats: 2.29% (4572 draws)248 seats: 2.18% (4361 draws)249 seats: 2.05% (4098 draws)250 seats: 1.93% (3861 draws)251 seats: 1.83% (3651 draws)252 seats: 1.71% (3421 draws)253 seats: 1.62% (3230 draws)254 seats: 1.50% (2991 draws)255 seats: 1.38% (2753 draws)256 seats: 1.32% (2636 draws)257 seats: 1.17% (2345 draws)258 seats: 1.05% (2099 draws)259 seats: 0.99% (1976 draws)260 seats: 0.92% (1833 draws)261 seats: 0.83% (1652 draws)262 seats: 0.74% (1489 draws)263 seats: 0.68% (1351 draws)264 seats: 0.60% (1203 draws)265 seats: 0.56% (1121 draws)266 seats: 0.52% (1040 draws)267 seats: 0.45% (894 draws)268 seats: 0.42% (841 draws)269 seats: 0.35% (701 draws)270 seats: 0.30% (607 draws)271 seats: 0.28% (560 draws)272 seats: 0.24% (483 draws)273 seats: 0.20% (391 draws)274 seats: 0.16% (329 draws)275 seats: 0.16% (312 draws)276 seats: 0.13% (266 draws)277 seats: 0.14% (274 draws)278 seats: 0.10% (202 draws)279 seats: 0.09% (180 draws)280 seats: 0.07% (149 draws)281 seats: 0.06% (128 draws)282 seats: 0.06% (117 draws)283 seats: 0.05% (105 draws)284 seats: 0.04% (82 draws)285 seats: 0.04% (85 draws)286 seats: 0.03% (52 draws)287 seats: 0.02% (49 draws)288 seats: 0.02% (41 draws)289 seats: 0.02% (38 draws)290 seats: 0.02% (34 draws)291 seats: 0.01% (21 draws)292 seats: 0.01% (20 draws)293 seats: 0.01% (18 draws)294 seats: 0.01% (11 draws)295 seats: 0.01% (16 draws)296 seats: 0.01% (13 draws)297 seats: 0.00% (8 draws)298 seats: 0.00% (8 draws)299 seats: 0.00% (5 draws)300 seats: 0.00% (2 draws)301 seats: 0.00% (2 draws)302 seats: 0.00% (2 draws)303 seats: 0.00% (5 draws)305 seats: 0.00% (2 draws)307 seats: 0.00% (1 draws)308 seats: 0.00% (2 draws)310 seats: 0.00% (1 draws)312 seats: 0.00% (2 draws)313 seats: 0.00% (1 draws)318 seats: 0.00% (1 draws)325 seats: 0.00% (1 draws)180190200210220230240250260270280290300310320330Majority: 218Democratic seats0.0%1.0%1.9%2.9%180 seats: 0.00% (1 draws)186 seats: 0.00% (1 draws)188 seats: 0.00% (1 draws)189 seats: 0.00% (2 draws)190 seats: 0.00% (2 draws)191 seats: 0.00% (5 draws)192 seats: 0.00% (5 draws)193 seats: 0.00% (9 draws)194 seats: 0.01% (18 draws)195 seats: 0.01% (13 draws)196 seats: 0.01% (27 draws)197 seats: 0.01% (29 draws)198 seats: 0.02% (41 draws)199 seats: 0.02% (38 draws)200 seats: 0.03% (52 draws)201 seats: 0.04% (80 draws)202 seats: 0.04% (85 draws)203 seats: 0.06% (121 draws)204 seats: 0.09% (171 draws)205 seats: 0.10% (208 draws)206 seats: 0.12% (238 draws)207 seats: 0.15% (301 draws)208 seats: 0.19% (385 draws)209 seats: 0.22% (443 draws)210 seats: 0.27% (532 draws)211 seats: 0.34% (681 draws)212 seats: 0.37% (736 draws)213 seats: 0.46% (928 draws)214 seats: 0.52% (1040 draws)215 seats: 0.60% (1195 draws)216 seats: 0.72% (1437 draws)217 seats: 0.80% (1597 draws)218 seats: 0.94% (1872 draws)219 seats: 1.01% (2023 draws)220 seats: 1.18% (2352 draws)221 seats: 1.26% (2528 draws)222 seats: 1.42% (2834 draws)223 seats: 1.59% (3172 draws)224 seats: 1.65% (3304 draws)225 seats: 1.82% (3644 draws)226 seats: 1.96% (3923 draws)227 seats: 2.06% (4123 draws)228 seats: 2.23% (4454 draws)229 seats: 2.35% (4704 draws)230 seats: 2.48% (4963 draws)231 seats: 2.55% (5106 draws)232 seats: 2.66% (5326 draws)233 seats: 2.71% (5411 draws)234 seats: 2.78% (5567 draws)235 seats: 2.85% (5693 draws)236 seats: 2.83% (5654 draws)237 seats: 2.86% (5725 draws)238 seats: 2.87% (5739 draws)239 seats: 2.82% (5636 draws)240 seats: 2.81% (5617 draws)241 seats: 2.77% (5543 draws)242 seats: 2.81% (5621 draws)243 seats: 2.64% (5289 draws)244 seats: 2.56% (5115 draws)245 seats: 2.49% (4977 draws)246 seats: 2.46% (4918 draws)247 seats: 2.29% (4572 draws)248 seats: 2.18% (4361 draws)249 seats: 2.05% (4098 draws)250 seats: 1.93% (3861 draws)251 seats: 1.83% (3651 draws)252 seats: 1.71% (3421 draws)253 seats: 1.62% (3230 draws)254 seats: 1.50% (2991 draws)255 seats: 1.38% (2753 draws)256 seats: 1.32% (2636 draws)257 seats: 1.17% (2345 draws)258 seats: 1.05% (2099 draws)259 seats: 0.99% (1976 draws)260 seats: 0.92% (1833 draws)261 seats: 0.83% (1652 draws)262 seats: 0.74% (1489 draws)263 seats: 0.68% (1351 draws)264 seats: 0.60% (1203 draws)265 seats: 0.56% (1121 draws)266 seats: 0.52% (1040 draws)267 seats: 0.45% (894 draws)268 seats: 0.42% (841 draws)269 seats: 0.35% (701 draws)270 seats: 0.30% (607 draws)271 seats: 0.28% (560 draws)272 seats: 0.24% (483 draws)273 seats: 0.20% (391 draws)274 seats: 0.16% (329 draws)275 seats: 0.16% (312 draws)276 seats: 0.13% (266 draws)277 seats: 0.14% (274 draws)278 seats: 0.10% (202 draws)279 seats: 0.09% (180 draws)280 seats: 0.07% (149 draws)281 seats: 0.06% (128 draws)282 seats: 0.06% (117 draws)283 seats: 0.05% (105 draws)284 seats: 0.04% (82 draws)285 seats: 0.04% (85 draws)286 seats: 0.03% (52 draws)287 seats: 0.02% (49 draws)288 seats: 0.02% (41 draws)289 seats: 0.02% (38 draws)290 seats: 0.02% (34 draws)291 seats: 0.01% (21 draws)292 seats: 0.01% (20 draws)293 seats: 0.01% (18 draws)294 seats: 0.01% (11 draws)295 seats: 0.01% (16 draws)296 seats: 0.01% (13 draws)297 seats: 0.00% (8 draws)298 seats: 0.00% (8 draws)299 seats: 0.00% (5 draws)300 seats: 0.00% (2 draws)301 seats: 0.00% (2 draws)302 seats: 0.00% (2 draws)303 seats: 0.00% (5 draws)305 seats: 0.00% (2 draws)307 seats: 0.00% (1 draws)308 seats: 0.00% (2 draws)310 seats: 0.00% (1 draws)312 seats: 0.00% (2 draws)313 seats: 0.00% (1 draws)318 seats: 0.00% (1 draws)325 seats: 0.00% (1 draws)180190200210220230240250260270280290300310320330Majority: 218Democratic seats

The height of each bar shows how often that number of seats occurs in the simulations. The mean is not the most frequent scenario. The two parties' intervals do not add up bound to bound.

Calculation of October 3, 2026 · HOUSE-GB-REFRESH-20261003Download the Monte-Carlo trace ↗
View the poll measurements, separate from the simulations
THE LOCAL DETAIL

All districts

Download the 435 forecasts ↓
435 districts · engine forecastsMODEL V1 · CONDITIONNEL D/R
House engine forecasts 2026 for the 435 districts: central D and R scores, central lead, conditional D/R probabilities and mechanical classification. Third parties remain NON_MESURE.
StateD scoreR scoreLeadP(D)P(R)RatingView
Alaska50.9%49.1%D +1.858.0%42.0%Toss-up
Alabama36.2%63.8%R +27.60.1%99.9%Safe R
Alabama47.2%52.8%R +5.626.6%73.4%Lean R
Alabama30.9%69.1%R +38.2≤ 0.1%≥ 99.9%Safe R
Alabama21.0%79.0%R +58.1≤ 0.1%≥ 99.9%Safe R
Alabama39.7%60.3%R +20.61.0%99.0%Safe R
Alabama36.5%63.5%R +27.00.1%99.9%Safe R
Alabama64.4%35.6%D +28.9≥ 99.9%≤ 0.1%Safe D
Arkansas29.9%70.1%R +40.2≤ 0.1%≥ 99.9%Safe R
Arkansas46.0%54.0%R +8.018.6%81.4%Likely R
Arkansas38.4%61.6%R +23.10.5%99.5%Safe R
Arkansas30.6%69.4%R +38.8≤ 0.1%≥ 99.9%Safe R
Arizona52.1%47.9%D +4.268.0%32.0%Lean D
Arizona48.2%51.8%R +3.634.3%65.7%Lean R
Arizona76.1%23.9%D +52.2≥ 99.9%≤ 0.1%Safe D
Arizona57.1%42.9%D +14.294.4%5.6%Likely D
Arizona44.3%55.7%R +11.410.0%90.0%Likely R
Arizona54.2%45.8%D +8.582.9%17.1%Likely D
Arizona66.9%33.1%D +33.9≥ 99.9%≤ 0.1%Safe D
Arizona47.2%52.8%R +5.626.5%73.5%Lean R

D score: D vote share D/(D+R). P(D)/P(R): conditional model probabilities. The classes are derived mechanically from these probabilities. P(other) remains unmeasured; the 435 sheets also show the historical reference.

WHERE THE MAJORITY IS DECIDED

The districts in play

MECHANICAL THRESHOLD · P(D) 25–75%

This box mechanically isolates the districts where the conditional D/R model gives each party at least 25% chance of winning. It is not an editorial ranking.

43competitive districtsP(D) 25–75%
19highly competitive districtsP(D) 40–60%
11near 50/50P(D) 45–55%
211–224D–R seats in 2024House result
DistrictD score 2026R score 2026P(D)P(R)2024 · D/R (D+R = 100)
50.9%49.1%58.0%42.0%49.5 / 50.5
47.2%52.8%26.6%73.4%54.6 / 45.4
52.1%47.9%68.0%32.0%48.1 / 51.9
48.2%51.8%34.3%65.7%45.5 / 54.5
47.2%52.8%26.5%73.5%43.5 / 56.5
47.5%52.5%28.5%71.5%44.7 / 55.3
49.9%50.1%49.2%50.8%47.4 / 52.6
48.9%51.1%40.4%59.6%43.9 / 56.1
49.7%50.3%46.9%53.1%42.8 / 57.2
47.7%52.3%30.6%69.4%42.7 / 57.3
48.1%51.9%33.4%66.6%43.5 / 56.5
48.3%51.7%35.1%64.9%45.2 / 54.8
49.7%50.3%47.0%53.0%57.8 / 42.2
47.5%52.5%28.5%71.5%40.5 / 59.5
49.3%50.7%43.8%56.2%55.0 / 45.0
50.5%49.5%54.3%45.7%54.5 / 45.5
48.7%51.3%38.6%61.4%42.1 / 57.9
49.4%50.6%44.8%55.2%50.3 / 49.7
50.5%49.5%54.4%45.6%44.1 / 55.9
52.7%47.3%72.9%27.1%48.1 / 51.9
50.4%49.6%53.3%46.7%46.8 / 53.2
47.9%52.1%31.9%68.1%41.4 / 58.6
49.2%50.8%42.9%57.1%43.8 / 56.2
48.6%51.4%37.9%62.1%46.0 / 54.0
50.0%50.0%50.1%49.9%50.9 / 49.1
47.5%52.5%29.1%70.9%0.0 / 100.0
49.3%50.7%43.6%56.4%43.2 / 56.8
47.3%52.7%27.2%72.8%0.0 / 100.0
50.8%49.2%56.9%43.1%44.8 / 55.2
48.6%51.4%37.7%62.3%38.0 / 62.0
47.2%52.8%26.3%73.7%41.4 / 58.6
51.0%49.0%58.5%41.5%50.4 / 49.6
47.1%52.9%26.0%74.0%40.5 / 59.5
48.5%51.5%36.9%63.1%43.5 / 56.5
51.3%48.7%61.3%38.7%43.6 / 56.4
48.0%52.0%33.0%67.0%41.7 / 58.3
51.3%48.7%61.5%38.5%52.8 / 47.2
50.5%49.5%54.4%45.6%51.3 / 48.7
49.7%50.3%47.3%52.7%67.4 / 32.6
50.2%49.8%51.5%48.5%43.6 / 56.4
48.7%51.3%38.8%61.2%42.5 / 57.5
49.9%50.1%49.2%50.8%44.8 / 55.2
52.7%47.3%72.8%27.2%48.6 / 51.4

2026: central engine outputs, calculation of October 3, 2026. 2024: D/R shares normalized on D+R; rounded archives from the project folder and targeted recheck of the Clerk for Alaska, Minnesota and North Dakota. These are not constant-boundary swings.

COMPARE THE ELECTORAL GEOGRAPHIES

Results 2024 ↔ Forecast 2026

435 results 2024 · 435 projections 2026

Move the divider to switch from the last election to the projection. Each map uses the 435 districts and the same color scale: the Democratic share of the D+R vote, not the probability of winning. Choose a district to read its figures.

100%
2024 · HOUSE RESULTSBoundaries of the 119th Congress
2026 · FORECASTProject folder geography
Loading geographic boundaries…Both complete series are already in the file. Boundaries are downloaded from Census.
All 2026All 2024
Same scale on both mapsDarker = larger vote margin

One district, two readings

Boundaries can change between elections. The same number does not guarantee the same boundaries.

2024 · Result among D+R

D —R —

Rounded archives from the project folder; targeted recheck of ten districts.

2026 · Central D/R score

D —R —

Win probabilities shown separately upon selection.

Geographic comparison, not a uniform swing: 2024 uses the boundaries of the 119th Congress; 2026 uses the project folder's Census boundaries with the Missouri fix retained. These vintages do not certify later changes. The votes 2024 are normalized on D+R; third parties are excluded and elections without a D/R opponent do not measure a margin between two sides. Sources and limits ↗

The values of the 435 districts do not depend on the table's pagination.

THE NATIONAL SIGNAL

What the polls measure

MESURE · October 3, 2026

The Generic Ballot

A national measure of voting intentions for Democratic and Republican House candidates, without naming a local candidate.

The populations remain separate: likely voters (LV), registered voters (RV) and all adults are not interchangeable.

Read the source and the protocol
D−R margin · pointsR +10 ← 0 → D +10Gap
Likely votersLV · population principale
D +7.35
Registered votersRV · separate measure
Not recomputed
AdultsAdults · separate measure
Not recomputed

Descriptive aggregate from the identified data feed. A D−R margin is neither a seat split nor a probability of winning. No daily series is invented. [2]

10district waves
in the snapshot
0source primaire
verified in this corpus

These local reports remain outside the engine. Their scores are not presented here as validated measurements. The count describes the project folder's file, not all published polls. [4]

THE MILLÉNAIRE METHOD

An explicit baseline. Documented tests.

RECHECK · 21 SEPT. 2026
01

Start from the results

The electoral baseline separates the presidential reference from local persistence. The project folder's parameters remain unchanged.

02

Separate the information

The national signal, district polls and local effects remain separately identified. Unverified data are not included.

03

Measuring past error

The gaps shown here are recomputed on the archives of 2010, 2014 and 2018. A historical performance is not a guarantee for 2026.

Historical model error, in points

Same sample at each horizon · MAE and RMSE of two-party D share.

HorizonSample sizeMAE M0MAE M1MAE M2RMSE M2
J − 601,0165.6284.9663.2414.331
J − 301,0165.6284.9663.2514.323
J − 141,0165.6284.9663.2124.291

1,016 cycle-district pairs observed at three horizons, i.e. 3,048 rows, but only three distinct elections. The control 2022 to J−50 is not the complete integrated backtest. [5]

Parameters and status of the layers

Retained parameters

Local persistence: incumbent α = 0.57; open seat α = 0.18. National sensitivity: β = 1. These coefficients remain unchanged; only the uncertainty components were estimated for the engine.

District polls

Specification M3 pre-registered, τ = 4 points, meets its historical criterion 2018. Replication on a second cycle remains open; its overall status remains A_MESURER.

Uncertainty

Historical residuals were used to estimate national, regional, state and district variances by nested moments, after correcting for noise in group means. The national component was recalibrated on October 1, 2026, of 0.980 to 1.457 point: this is the engine's measured national error at T−60. The region components (0.478), State (1.430) and district (3.937) are unchanged. Overall validation remains limited to three cycles. Unit: points of two-party D share.

Layers not included

Finance, conditional special elections and fundamentals: NON_MESURE. Second additive incumbency correction and group elasticities: REJECTED in the source registry.

One engine run.
A provisional forecast.

200,000 correlated draws are recomputed every day. This page shows the outputs of engine M2, with the canonical prior unchanged, published as a provisional forecast. M3 remains excluded; electoral cases outside the D/R contest, geography and full national calibration are not certified by this run.

UPDATES & TRACEABILITY

A page linked to its data

Displayed dataOctober 3, 2026The date of a measurement is never replaced by the page generation date.
Page synchronizationDaily pipelineCollection of polls, recomputation of 200,000 draws, checks and publication every day. Displayed calculation: October 3, 2026.
House engine calculationRan · 200,000 drawsEvery day: collection of public polls, engine recomputation, automated checks, then publication. A day without a new poll does not change the figures.

The results are embedded in this file. A check of an external feed must never erase them; it is not a new engine calculation.

Sources and reference dates

[1] Institution. U.S. House of Representatives. 435 voting representatives; 218 is the absolute majority of 435.

[2] Engine outputs: forecast_us_2026.json, calculation of October 3, 2026 (HOUSE-GB-REFRESH-20261003). Generic Ballot under rule Common V3, polls through October 3, 2026.

[3] Local reference. Corrected canonical prior V3. The page uses the historical field pres24, not the prior's score 2026. Values rounded to two decimals on screen.

[4] District polls. Local aggregate V1, project snapshot v8. No score from an unverified primary source is shown.

[5] Validation. Historical validation handoff, recheck of September 21, 2026. The metrics M0/M1/M2 come from archived values, without re-estimation.

About this edition. House V7: carried over from V6, shared banner of the Berlin reference, cartogram and geographic views. Model and prior unchanged. Viewing some Drive files requires authorization.

[6] Geography. Census TIGERweb, 120th Congress; Missouri: 119th Congress. Census warning on Missouri. Identifier check 435/435 before display; any latest court-ordered change is not certified by this load alone.

Comparator 2024/2026 — V1.7. The series 2026 comes from the 435 objets forecast.districts, never from the paginated table. For 2024, the archived scores are rescaled to D+R = 100; ten districts (AK, MN, ND) are corrected using the Clerk statistics (printed pages 2, 37, 54). The other rows remain rounded archives, without full primary revalidation. The percentages 2026 are conditional D/R.