Forecast - 2026 US midterm elections: governors

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Republicans would keep most governorships
Le Millénaire · 36 governorships up · updated October 3, 2026 · election on November 3, 2026
Expected governorships out of 48 counted
D
Democrats incl. 6 not up
20.5
expected governorships
90% interval: 17 to 24
R
Republicans incl. 8 not up
27.5
expected governorships
90% interval: 24 to 31
AK·ME
Alaska and Maine
2
not probabilized
ranked-choice in Alaska, three candidates in Maine

36 governorships up, 14 not up (6 Democratic, 8 Republican). Structural mean: the state’s 2024 presidential result, the national environment and an incumbent governor on the ballot. Race polls are scheduled to enter from October 13. Updated October 3, 2026.

EXPLORE THE UNITED STATES

The 36 races, in three views

National view · 50 states · 36 races

R more likely≈ 50/50D more likelyNot probabilizedNo election in 2026
Alaska · Not probabilizedAKAlabama · D 6.6% · R 93.4%ALArkansas · D 1.5% · R 98.5%ARArizona · D 60.0% · R 40.0%AZCalifornia · D 76.9% · R 23.1%CAColorado · D 62.9% · R 37.1%COConnecticut · D 87.3% · R 12.7%CTDelaware · Not up · party in office DDEFlorida · D 23.0% · R 77.0%FLGeorgia · D 40.0% · R 60.0%GAHawaii · D 93.6% · R 6.4%HIIowa · D 22.9% · R 77.1%IAIdaho · D 0.8% · R 99.2%IDIllinois · D 83.7% · R 16.3%ILIndiana · Not up · party in office RINKansas · D 19.2% · R 80.8%KSKentucky · Not up · party in office DKYLouisiana · Not up · party in office RLAMassachusetts · D 94.7% · R 5.3%MAMaryland · D 96.1% · R 3.9%MDMaine · Not probabilizedMEMichigan · D 41.3% · R 58.7%MIMinnesota · D 51.2% · R 48.8%MNMissouri · Not up · party in office RMOMississippi · Not up · party in office RMSMontana · Not up · party in office RMTNorth Carolina · Not up · party in office DNCNorth Dakota · Not up · party in office RNDNebraska · D 4.3% · R 95.7%NENew Hampshire · D 24.5% · R 75.5%NHNew Jersey · Not up · party in office DNJNew Mexico · D 54.3% · R 45.7%NMNevada · D 17.1% · R 82.9%NVNew York · D 85.5% · R 14.5%NYOhio · D 25.6% · R 74.4%OHOklahoma · D 4.7% · R 95.3%OKOregon · D 87.1% · R 12.9%ORPennsylvania · D 66.4% · R 33.6%PARhode Island · D 67.5% · R 32.5%RISouth Carolina · D 17.1% · R 82.9%SCSouth Dakota · D 1.8% · R 98.2%SDTennessee · D 7.0% · R 93.0%TNTexas · D 7.8% · R 92.2%TXUtah · Not up · party in office RUTVirginia · Not up · party in office DVAVermont · D 72.0% · R 28.0%VTWashington · Not up · party in office DWAWisconsin · D 42.2% · R 57.8%WIWest Virginia · Not up · party in office RWVWyoming · D 1.4% · R 98.6%WYALASKA & HAWAÏ · ENCADRÉS REDIMENSIONNÉS
NATIONAL SIMULATION

Balance of power across 48 governorships

Exact distribution of the number of Democratic governors across the 48 governorships counted: 34 probabilized races and 14 seats not up. Red line: mean.

10 D : 0.0%11 D : 0.0%12 D : 0.0%13 D : 0.0%14 D : 0.2%15 D : 0.7%16 D : 2.1%17 D : 5.1%18 D : 9.6%19 D : 14.7%20 D : 18.0%21 D : 17.9%22 D : 14.4%23 D : 9.3%24 D : 4.9%25 D : 2.1%26 D : 0.7%27 D : 0.2%28 D : 0.0%29 D : 0.0%30 D : 0.0%31 D : 0.0%32 D : 0.0%101214161820222426283032

Races are independent in this calculation: the governors engine measures neither a common national shock nor a state shock (validated on four elections). The dependence with the House and the Senate is not measured.

SCENARIOS WITHOUT PROBABILITY

Alaska and Maine: the 50 governorships by outcome

These two races get no probability: ranked-choice voting in Alaska, three serious candidates in Maine. The table adds their outcome to the 48 governorships counted, without weighting the scenarios.

AlaskaMaineExpected DemocratsExpected Republicans90% interval D
RR20.529.517–24
DR21.528.518–25
RD21.528.518–25
DD22.527.519–26
ROther20.528.517–24
DOther21.527.518–25
MECHANICAL PROBABILITY ZONE

Races in the 25–75% range

Every race where each side keeps at least a 25% chance. Alphabetical order: this is not an editorial ranking.

11races in 25–75%
5races in 40–60%
2races in 45–55%
RaceDemocrat / RepublicanP(D)P(R)D−R margin
ArizonaKatie Hobbs (Lt: John Giles)Andy Biggs (Lt: Sine Kerr)60.0%40.0%+3.4
ColoradoPhil Weiser / Lesley DahlkemperVictor Marx / George Washington Markert62.9%37.1%+4.4
GeorgiaKeisha Lance BottomsRick Jackson40.0%60.0%−3.4
MichiganJocelyn Benson / Winnie BrinksJohn James / Jay DeBoyer41.3%58.7%−2.9
MinnesotaAmy Klobuchar / Ben SchiererLisa Demuth / Ryan Wilson51.2%48.8%+0.4
New MexicoDeb HaalandGreggory D. Hull54.3%45.7%+1.4
OhioAmy Acton / David PepperVivek Ramaswamy / Rob McColley25.6%74.4%−8.7
PennsylvaniaJosh Shapiro / Austin DavisStacy Garrity / Jason Richey66.4%33.6%+5.6
Rhode IslandHelena Buonanno FoulkesAaron C. Guckian67.5%32.5%+6.0
VermontAmanda JanooPhil Scott72.0%28.0%+7.7
WisconsinDavid Crowley / Sarah GodlewskiTom Tiffany / David Varnam42.2%57.8%−2.6
THE 36 RACES

Every race

36 / 36 races
RaceDemocratRepublicanD−R marginP(D)P(R)90% intervalIncumbentRating
AlabamaDoug JonesTommy Tuberville−20.06.6%93.4%−41.8 / +1.8Rterm-limitedLikely R
AlaskaJonathan S. Kreiss-Tomkins / Zac JohnsonTreg Taylor / Candi English−9.1———Rterm-limitedNot probabilized
ArizonaKatie Hobbs (Lt: John Giles)Andy Biggs (Lt: Sine Kerr)+3.460.0%40.0%−18.4 / +25.1DrunningToss-up
ArkansasFred LoveSarah Huckabee Sanders−28.81.5%98.5%−50.5 / −7.0RrunningSafe R
CaliforniaXavier BecerraSteve Hilton+9.776.9%23.1%−12.0 / +31.5Dterm-limitedLikely D
ColoradoPhil Weiser / Lesley DahlkemperVictor Marx / George Washington Markert+4.462.9%37.1%−17.4 / +26.1Dterm-limitedLean D
ConnecticutNed LamontRyan Fazio+15.187.3%12.7%−6.7 / +36.9DrunningLikely D
FloridaDavid Jolly / Gwen GrahamByron Donalds / Bryan Avila−9.823.0%77.0%−31.6 / +12.0Rterm-limitedLikely R
GeorgiaKeisha Lance BottomsRick Jackson−3.440.0%60.0%−25.2 / +18.4Rterm-limitedLean R
HawaiiJosh GreenGary Cordery+20.293.6%6.4%−1.6 / +41.9DrunningLikely D
IdahoTerri PickensBrad Little−32.20.8%99.2%−54.0 / −10.4RrunningSafe R
IllinoisJB Pritzker / Christian MitchellDarren Bailey / Aaron B. Del Mar+13.083.7%16.3%−8.8 / +34.8DrunningLikely D
IowaRob Sand (Lt: Dave Muhlbauer)Zach Lahn (Lt: Derek Wulf)−9.822.9%77.1%−31.6 / +11.9RretiringLikely R
KansasCindy Holscher / KC OhaebosimTy Masterson / Jeffrey Klemp−11.519.2%80.8%−33.3 / +10.2Dterm-limitedLikely R
MaineHannah M. PingreeRobert B. (Bobby) Charles+2.6———Dterm-limitedNot probabilized
MarylandWes Moore / Aruna MillerDan Cox / Rob Krop+23.496.1%3.9%+1.6 / +45.1DrunningSafe D
MassachusettsMaura HealeyMichael Roger Minogue+21.494.7%5.3%−0.4 / +43.2DrunningLikely D
MichiganJocelyn Benson / Winnie BrinksJohn James / Jay DeBoyer−2.941.3%58.7%−24.7 / +18.9Dterm-limitedToss-up
MinnesotaAmy Klobuchar / Ben SchiererLisa Demuth / Ryan Wilson+0.451.2%48.8%−21.4 / +22.2DretiringToss-up
NebraskaLynne Walz / Ben SteffenJim Pillen / Joe Kelly−22.84.3%95.7%−44.6 / −1.0RrunningSafe R
NevadaAaron FordJoe Lombardo−12.617.1%82.9%−34.4 / +9.2RrunningLikely R
New HampshireCinde WarmingtonKelly Ayotte−9.124.5%75.5%−30.9 / +12.6RrunningLikely R
New MexicoDeb HaalandGreggory D. Hull+1.454.3%45.7%−20.3 / +23.2Dterm-limitedToss-up
New YorkKathy Hochul / Adrienne Adams (lines Democratic + Working Families)Bruce Blakeman / Todd Hood (lines Republican + Conservative)+14.085.5%14.5%−7.8 / +35.8DrunningLikely D
OhioAmy Acton / David PepperVivek Ramaswamy / Rob McColley−8.725.6%74.4%−30.4 / +13.1Rterm-limitedLean R
OklahomaCyndi MunsonMike Mazzei−22.24.7%95.3%−44.0 / −0.4Rterm-limitedSafe R
OregonTina KotekChristine Drazan+15.087.1%12.9%−6.8 / +36.8DrunningLikely D
PennsylvaniaJosh Shapiro / Austin DavisStacy Garrity / Jason Richey+5.666.4%33.6%−16.2 / +27.4DrunningLean D
Rhode IslandHelena Buonanno FoulkesAaron C. Guckian+6.067.5%32.5%−15.8 / +27.8Dlost the primaryLean D
South CarolinaJermaine JohnsonAlan Wilson−12.617.1%82.9%−34.4 / +9.2Rterm-limitedLikely R
South DakotaDan Ahlers / Steven McCleereyLarry Rhoden / Tony Venhuizen−27.91.8%98.2%−49.7 / −6.1RrunningSafe R
TennesseeJerri GreenMarsha Blackburn−19.57.0%93.0%−41.3 / +2.3Rterm-limitedLikely R
TexasGina HinojosaGreg Abbott−18.87.8%92.2%−40.6 / +3.0RrunningLikely R
VermontAmanda JanooPhil Scott+7.772.0%28.0%−14.1 / +29.5RrunningLean D
WisconsinDavid Crowley / Sarah GodlewskiTom Tiffany / David Varnam−2.642.2%57.8%−24.4 / +19.2DretiringToss-up
WyomingKenneth R. CasnerEric Barlow−28.91.4%98.6%−50.7 / −7.2Rterm-limitedSafe R
RACE-BY-RACE AUDIT

Exact calculation detail

Each sheet redoes the engine’s calculation with its published parameters. The page makes no new estimate.

Minnesota · MN-GOV

D · Amy Klobuchar / Ben Schierer
R · Lisa Demuth / Ryan Wilson

51.2%
P(D)
01 · Presidential baseline
2024 presidential (D−R)+4.2 ptsCoefficient0.58696Contribution+2.5 pts
02 · National environment
National environment (Generic Ballot, likely voters)+7.4 ptsCoefficient0.58262Contribution+4.3 pts
03 · Structural centre
centre = −6.371 + 0.587 × 2024 presidential + 0.583 × national environment + 8.686 × incumbent
Constant−6.4Centre before incumbency+0.4 ptsIncumbency effect0.0 ptsCentral D−R margin+0.4 pts
04 · Uncertainty
Out-of-sample error estimated on 144 races (2010 to 2022)
Race standard deviation13.24490% interval−21.4 / +22.2
05 · Probability
P(D) = Φ(centre / σ)
P(D)51.2%P(R)48.8%RatingToss-up
METHOD AND TRACEABILITY

How the forecast is built

01 · StructureD−R margin = constant + 0.587 × the state’s 2024 presidential result + 0.583 × national environment + 8.69 points for an incumbent governor on the ballot (sign of their party, 0 for an open seat). Parameters estimated on 2010 to 2022; the incumbency effect improves the out-of-sample forecast in each of the four elections tested.
02 · National environmentLikely-voter Generic Ballot, same rule as the House, recomputed daily. It stands at D +7.35 points today.
03 · UncertaintyStandard deviation of 13.24 points per race, measured out of sample. No common national shock: the four-election test did not retain it.
04 · PollsRace polls are due to enter the mean from October 13, at day −21, the validated horizon. Until then the mean stays structural.

What the model showed on past elections

Mean errorMAE 9.87margin points, 144 out-of-sample races
Squared errorRMSE 13.24margin points
ProbabilitiesBrier 0.118Log Loss 0.362
National environmentMAE 1.94Generic Ballot bridge, 2010 to 2022
Visible limits: structural mean without race polls before October 13; Alaska and Maine not probabilized; races independent of one another; no joint probability with the House and the Senate; last election taken from the project archive.

A provisional forecast. Not a certification.

Outputs are recomputed daily. Race polls, the Alaska and Maine routes and the correlations with the other elections remain open.

Sources, files and reference dates