NOWFrench presidential · Le Pen 50.5 · Philippe 41.5 · Mélenchon 8.1Brazil · 5 daysIsrael · 28 daysUnited States · 35 daysLegislative elections 2027 · subscribersGermany · checked
39seats forecast for the AfD
then39seats won
Who will win? We calculate each side’s chances before the vote. Then we check.
Not another poll: a probability, drawn from every published poll, past results and the rules of the election.
AfD forecast at 39 seats: 39 won.
Our current forecasts
FRANCE · PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION · APRIL 2027 · OUR FLAGSHIP MODELMarine Le Pen: one chance in two.Out of 100 simulated elections, she wins 50, Édouard Philippe 42 and Jean-Luc Mélenchon 8. And 13 scenarios depending on who runs: Attal, Villepin, Hollande, a united left.
Le Pen 50Philippe 42Mélenchon 8
COMING SOON5 days
BrazilPresidential election · October 4, 2026The chances of each candidate being elected president.Get alertsCOMING SOON28 days
IsraelKnesset · October 27, 2026The chances of each coalition reaching 61 seats.Get alertsCOMING SOON35 days
United StatesMidterms · November 3, 2026The chances of control of the House, the Senate and the governorships.Get alertsSUBSCRIBERS ONLYJune 2027 (estimated date)
FranceLegislative electionsThe chances of each camp in all 577 constituencies, with dissolution scenarios.SubscribeCHECKED3/3
GermanyThree state elections · September 2026Three leading parties forecast, three confirmed.See the track recordMissing an election?We build custom models for a country, a region or a constituency.Our custom plans
How to read our numbers
A forecast is not a poll. It is a chance of winning.
31% is not 50.5 in 10031% is Marine Le Pen’s expected first-round share. 50.5 in 100 is her chance of being elected after both rounds. The two cannot be compared.
Like the weatherA 70% chance of rain is also a 30% chance of fine weather: out of 1,000 days like this one, 300 are sunny. An election reads the same way.
A favourite can loseAt 50.5 in 100, Marine Le Pen loses almost one time in two. A good model does not guess the winner: it gives the right odds, and we check it election after election.
Published before, checked after
Full track record| ELECTION | DATE | LEADING PARTY | OUR BEST VERIFIED RESULT | CONSTITUENCIES |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saxony-Anhalt | Sep 6, 2026 | AfD, correct | AfD forecast at 39 seats: 39 won. | 38 of 41 correct |
| Berlin | Sep 20, 2026 | Die Linke, correct | 7 parties out of 7 within our 90% seat range. | 64 of 78 correct |
| Mecklenburg | Sep 20, 2026 | AfD, correct | 21 favourites out of 21 rated 90% or more: all confirmed. | 30 of 36 correct |
The calendar
September 2026 · closedGermany, three state elections
Oct 4, 2026Brazil, presidential
Oct 27, 2026Israel, Knesset
Nov 3, 2026United States, midterms
April 2027France, presidential
June 2027 · estimatedFrance, legislativesubscribers
THE MONDAY NUMBER · LE MILLÉNAIRELe Pen: one chance in two.forecast.lemillenaire.org
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According to Le Millénaire’s forecast model (run of September 28, 2026), Marine Le Pen has a 50.5 in 100 chance of being elected, Édouard Philippe 41.5 and Jean-Luc Mélenchon 8.1.