NOWFrench presidential · Le Pen 58.5 · Philippe 33.1 · Mélenchon 8.4Spain · 17 daysLegislative elections 2027 · subscribersUnited States · checkedIsrael · checkedBrazil · checkedGermany · checked
United States · Midterms448/ 494races where we called the right winner
Israel · Knesset13/ 13lists within our seat ranges
Germany · Saxony-Anhalt39= 39seats forecast for the AfD, seats won
Who will win? We calculate each side’s chances before the vote. Then we check.
Not another poll: a probability, drawn from every published poll, past results and the rules of the election.
448 constituencies out of 494 with the right winner. 375 favourites out of 376 rated 90% or more: confirmed. 13 parties out of 13 within our 90% seat range. AfD forecast at 39 seats: 39 won.
Our current forecasts
FRANCE · PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION · APRIL 2027 · OUR FLAGSHIP MODELMarine Le Pen: three chances in five.Out of 100 simulated elections, she wins 59, Édouard Philippe 33 and Jean-Luc Mélenchon 8. And 11 scenarios depending on who runs: Attal, Villepin, Hollande, a united left.
Le Pen 59Philippe 33Mélenchon 8
PUBLISHED17 days
SpainCongress · November 29, 2026The chances of each possible government reaching 176 seats, and who will be prime minister.See the forecastSUBSCRIBERS ONLYJune 2027 (estimated date)
FranceLegislative electionsThe chances of each camp in all 577 constituencies, with dissolution scenarios.SubscribeCHECKED448/494
United StatesMidterms · November 3, 2026The right winner in 448 races out of 494. 375 out of 376 when we gave the favourite 90% or more.See the track recordCHECKED13/13
IsraelKnesset · October 27, 202613 lists out of 13 within our seat ranges, 7 to the exact seat. Likud first and no majority, as forecast.See the track recordCHECKED3/3
GermanyThree state elections · September 2026Three leading parties forecast, three confirmed.See the track recordCHECKED25/27
BrazilPresidential · first round, October 4The right finalist ahead in 25 states out of 27. The Lula vs Flávio Bolsonaro runoff was in 83% of our simulations.See the track recordMissing an election?We build custom models for a country, a region or a constituency.Our custom plans
How to read our numbers
A forecast is not a poll. It is a chance of winning.
31% is not 58.5 in 10031% is Marine Le Pen’s expected first-round share. 58.5 in 100 is her chance of being elected after both rounds. The two cannot be compared.
Like the weatherA 70% chance of rain is also a 30% chance of fine weather: out of 1,000 days like this one, 300 are sunny. An election reads the same way.
A favourite can loseAt 58.5 in 100, Marine Le Pen loses slightly more than two times in five. A good model does not guess the winner: it gives the right odds, and we check it election after election.
Published before, checked after
Full track record| ELECTION | DATE | LEADING PARTY | OUR BEST VERIFIED RESULT | CONSTITUENCIES |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saxony-Anhalt | Sep 6, 2026 | AfD, correct | AfD forecast at 39 seats: 39 won. | 38 of 41 correct |
| Berlin | Sep 20, 2026 | Die Linke, correct | 7 parties out of 7 within our 90% seat range. | 64 of 78 correct |
| Mecklenburg | Sep 20, 2026 | AfD, correct | 21 favourites out of 21 rated 90% or more: all confirmed. | 30 of 36 correct |
| Brazil | Oct 25, 2026 | Lula, missed | ||
| Israel | Oct 27, 2026 | 13 parties out of 13 within our 90% seat range. | ||
| United States | Nov 3, 2026 | 375 favourites out of 376 rated 90% or more: confirmed. | 448 of 494 correct |
The calendar
November 2026 · closedGermany, three state elections, Brazil, 1 elections, Israel, 1 elections, United States, 1 elections
Nov 29, 2026Spain, general election
April 2027France, presidential
June 2027 · estimatedFrance, legislativesubscribers
THE MONDAY NUMBER · LE MILLÉNAIRELe Pen: three chances in five.forecast.lemillenaire.org
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According to Le Millénaire’s forecast model (run of November 12, 2026), Marine Le Pen has a 58.5 in 100 chance of being elected, Édouard Philippe 33.1 and Jean-Luc Mélenchon 8.4.