Track record

Published before, checked after

For every closed election, the same five indicators are calculated, only from the official results in the closing file and the forecast values it records. The showcase displays the strongest indicator: highest success rate, then, in case of a tie, the priority order below.

ELECTION	EXACT SEATS OF THE LEADING PARTY	PARTIES WITHIN THE 90% RANGE	FAVOURITES AT 90% OR MORE CONFIRMED	CONSTITUENCIES WITH THE RIGHT WINNER	LEADING PARTY RIGHT
Saxony-Anhalt Sep 6, 2026 · final result	39 forecast, 39 won	3 of 7	37 of 37	38 of 41	AfD: correct
Berlin Sep 20, 2026 · provisional result	37 forecast, 47 won	7 of 7	45 of 47	64 of 78	Die Linke: correct
Mecklenburg Sep 20, 2026 · provisional result	28 forecast, 32 won	5 of 7	21 of 21	30 of 36	AfD: correct

Every forecast is frozen before the vote. Forecast and actual values come from the closing files, checked against the official results.

Our five indicators, always the same

Exact seats of the leading partyThe party that came first in votes wins exactly the number of seats of our central value.

Parties within the 90% rangeNumber of parties whose seat total falls within our 90% interval, out of the number of parties forecast.

Favourites at 90% or more confirmedConstituencies where our favourite had 90 in 100 or more: share where they won.

Constituencies with the right winnerConstituencies where our favourite won, out of all constituencies forecast.

Leading party rightThe party our central value placed first in votes comes first.

Sources of the results

Saxony-Anhalt: Landeswahlleiterin Sachsen-Anhalt, September 22, 2026 (final result).
Berlin: Landeswahlleiter für Berlin, September 21, 2026 (provisional result).
Mecklenburg: Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, September 21, 2026 (provisional result).