Track record

Published before, checked after

For every closed election, the same five indicators are calculated, only from the official results in the closing file and the forecast values it records. The showcase displays the strongest indicator: highest success rate, then, in case of a tie, the priority order below.

ELECTION	EXACT SEATS OF THE LEADING PARTY	PARTIES WITHIN THE 90% RANGE	FAVOURITES AT 90% OR MORE CONFIRMED	CONSTITUENCIES WITH THE RIGHT WINNER	LEADING PARTY RIGHT
Saxony-Anhalt Sep 6, 2026 · final result	39 forecast, 39 won	3 of 7	37 of 37	38 of 41	AfD: correct
Berlin Sep 20, 2026 · provisional result	37 forecast, 47 won	7 of 7	45 of 47	64 of 78	Die Linke: correct
Mecklenburg Sep 20, 2026 · provisional result	28 forecast, 32 won	5 of 7	21 of 21	30 of 36	AfD: correct
Brazil Oct 25, 2026 · final result	not assessed	not assessed	not assessed	not assessed	Lula: missed
Israel Oct 27, 2026 · final result	not assessed	13 of 13	not assessed	not assessed	not assessed
United States Nov 3, 2026 · provisional result	not assessed	not assessed	375 of 376	448 of 494	not assessed
Brazil, first round Oct 4, 2026 · step before the runoff	not assessed	6 of 7 candidates	not assessed	25 of 27 states	Flávio Bolsonaro: missed

Every forecast is frozen before the vote. Forecast and actual values come from the closing files, checked against the official results.

Beyond the five indicators

Israel, October 27, 2026

7 lists out of 13 to the exact seat, 9 within one seat. Average gap: 1.1 seats.

Entry threshold: 13 lists out of 13 on the right side. The 11 forecast above it got in, the 2 forecast below it stayed out.

Likud first: 23 seats forecast, 27 won.

Netanyahu bloc: 55 seats forecast (45 to 67), 53 won.

Anti-Netanyahu bloc: 51 seats forecast (39 to 63), 48 won.

No 61-seat majority: the outcome in 69% of our simulations, the most likely of those we published.

Commission centrale électorale · our forecast, frozen before the vote of October 27, 2026

Checked step before the runoff · 25 states out of 27

Brazil, first round, October 4, 2026

The right finalist ahead in 25 states out of 27. The two states we missed, Amazonas and Tocantins, were our two closest projections: 49.8% and 50.3% for Lula.

A Lula vs Flávio Bolsonaro runoff, with no first-round winner: the outcome in 83% of our simulations.

Six vote shares out of seven inside our 90% range, including Lula’s and Flávio Bolsonaro’s.

Lula within 0.8 points of our forecast: 44.4% forecast, 45.16% obtained.

Runoff on October 25: Lula elected with 51.79% of the vote, against 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro (TSE). Our October 24 forecast gave Lula 49.1%, within a range of 45.7% to 52.6%: the result falls inside the range, but our forecast had Flávio Bolsonaro ahead. The winner was missed.

What we missed: the order of finish. We had Lula first (44.4% to 41.2%). Flávio Bolsonaro came first with 47.03%, against 45.16% for Lula.

For the states, our map projected the runoff: state by state, we compare which of the two finalists came ahead in the first round (Amapá, tied to one decimal, counts as correct). These first-round results are not part of the five fixed indicators above. The runoff is included there, with its official result.

Tribunal supérieur électoral (TSE), résultats officiels du premier tour, 100 % des bureaux · Notre prévision gelée le 3 octobre 2026 à 23 h 30 (heure de Brasília), archive en fin de page

Our five indicators, always the same

Exact seats of the leading partyThe party that came first in votes wins exactly the number of seats of our central value.

Parties within the 90% rangeNumber of parties whose seat total falls within our 90% interval, out of the number of parties forecast.

Favourites at 90% or more confirmedConstituencies where our favourite had 90 in 100 or more: share where they won.

Constituencies with the right winnerConstituencies where our favourite won, out of all constituencies forecast.

Leading party rightThe party our central value placed first in votes comes first.

Sources of the results

Saxony-Anhalt: Landeswahlleiterin Sachsen-Anhalt, September 22, 2026 (final result).
Berlin: Landeswahlleiter für Berlin, September 21, 2026 (provisional result).
Mecklenburg: Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, September 21, 2026 (provisional result).
Brazil: Tribunal supérieur électoral (TSE), October 25, 2026 (final result).
Israel: Commission centrale électorale, October 30, 2026 (final result).
United States: Secrétaires d'État et commissions électorales des États (décomptes officiels, November 14, 2026 (provisional result).