Elections
All our forecasts
Published before the vote, frozen, then compared with the official result. Above the “today” line, our track record. Below it, what is coming.
9elections covered
6countries
3 of 6leading parties right
November 2026 · closedGermany, three state elections, Brazil, 1 elections, Israel, 1 elections, United States, 1 elections
Nov 29, 2026Spain, general election
April 2027France, presidential
June 2027 · estimatedFrance, legislativesubscribers
Sep 6, 2026
GERMANY · SAXONY-ANHALTAfD forecast at 39 seats: 39 won.
Sep 20, 2026
GERMANY · BERLIN7 parties out of 7 within our 90% seat range.
CheckedForecast and track record
Sep 20, 2026
GERMANY · MECKLENBURG21 favourites out of 21 rated 90% or more: all confirmed.
CheckedForecast and track record
Oct 25, 2026
BRAZIL · PRESIDENTIALLula wins with 51.79%. Our forecast: 49.1% (45.7 to 52.6%), the result is within the range. Our forecast had Flávio Bolsonaro ahead: winner missed.
CheckedForecast and track record
Oct 27, 2026
ISRAEL · KNESSET13 parties out of 13 within our 90% seat range.
CheckedForecast and track record
Nov 3, 2026
UNITED STATES · MIDTERMS375 favourites out of 376 rated 90% or more: confirmed.
CheckedForecast and track record
today
NOVEMBER 12, 2026
Nov 29, 202617 days
SPAIN · CONGRESOThe chances of each possible government reaching 176 seats, and who will be prime minister.
PublishedSee the forecast
April 2027
FRANCE · PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION · OUR FLAGSHIP MODELMarine Le Pen: three chances in five. Out of 100 simulated elections: Le Pen 59, Philippe 33, Mélenchon 8.
June 2027estimated date
FRANCE · LEGISLATIVEThe chances of each camp in all 577 constituencies, with dissolution scenarios.
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What each forecast page containsThe key number in one sentence, three takeaways, the trend, the method in five lines, then the full interactive model.
StatusesPublished: full model. Coming soon: model being finalised, published before the vote. Subscribers: subscribers only. Checked: forecast compared with the result.
Missing an election?We produce forecasts to order, for a country, a region or a constituency.contact@lemillenaire.org
An alert with every new forecastAnd with every track record.