Elections
All our forecasts
Published before the vote, frozen, then compared with the official result. Above the “today” line, our track record. Below it, what is coming.
8elections covered
5countries
3 of 3leading parties right
September 2026 · closedGermany, three state elections
Oct 4, 2026Brazil, presidential
Oct 27, 2026Israel, Knesset
Nov 3, 2026United States, midterms
April 2027France, presidential
June 2027 · estimatedFrance, legislativesubscribers
Sep 6, 2026
GERMANY · SAXONY-ANHALTAfD forecast at 39 seats: 39 won.
Sep 20, 2026
GERMANY · BERLIN7 parties out of 7 within our 90% seat range.
CheckedForecast and track record
Sep 20, 2026
GERMANY · MECKLENBURG21 favourites out of 21 rated 90% or more: all confirmed.
CheckedForecast and track record
today
SEPTEMBER 29, 2026
Oct 4, 20265 days
BRAZIL · PRESIDENTIALThe chances of each candidate being elected president.
SoonGet alerts
Nov 3, 202635 days
UNITED STATES · MIDTERMSThe chances of control of the House, the Senate and the governorships.
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April 2027
FRANCE · PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION · OUR FLAGSHIP MODELMarine Le Pen: one chance in two. Out of 100 simulated elections: Le Pen 50, Philippe 42, Mélenchon 8.
June 2027estimated date
FRANCE · LEGISLATIVEThe chances of each camp in all 577 constituencies, with dissolution scenarios.
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What each forecast page containsThe key number in one sentence, three takeaways, the trend, the method in five lines, then the full interactive model.
StatusesPublished: full model. Coming soon: model being finalised, published before the vote. Subscribers: subscribers only. Checked: forecast compared with the result.
Missing an election?We produce forecasts to order, for a country, a region or a constituency.contact@lemillenaire.org
An alert with every new forecastAnd with every track record.