Germany · September 20, 2026
Berlin House of Representatives election
Our forecast, frozen on September 19, 2026, against the official result.
The verdict7 parties out of 7 within our 90% seat range.
Leading party rightDie Linke forecast first: first.
Favourites at 90% or more confirmed45 favourites out of 47 rated 90% or more: confirmed.
Constituencies with the right winner64 constituencies out of 78 with the right winner.
Our forecast against the result
Grey bar: our 90% range. Line: our central value. Solid dot: result inside the range. Hollow diamond: result outside the range.
The new House of Representatives
Subscribers onlyAll 78 constituencies, one by oneOur favourite, its probability, the actual winner and the margin, for each constituency. Plus the full data to download.
SubscribeThe original forecast
The interactive page published before the vote is kept as it was, unchanged. Last update: September 19, 2026.