Le MillénaireElection forecasts
Germany · September 20, 2026

Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state election

Our forecast, frozen on September 19, 2026, against the official result.

Provisional result · source: Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, September 21, 2026

The verdict21 favourites out of 21 rated 90% or more: all confirmed.
Leading party rightAfD forecast first: first.
Constituencies with the right winner30 constituencies out of 36 with the right winner.

All five indicators, election by election, in the track record

Our forecast against the result

Grey bar: our 90% range. Line: our central value. Solid dot: result inside the range. Hollow diamond: result outside the range.

0%10%20%30%40%50%AfD34.0 → 38.2%SPD33.9 → 35.5%Die Linke9.8 → 6.5% (outside range)CDU7.0 → 4.9% (outside range)Greens5.4 → 5.7%BSW5.0 → 4.8%FDP2.0 → 1.0% (outside range)

The new Landtag

AfD 32SPD 29Die Linke 5Greens 5
Subscribers onlyAll 36 constituencies, one by oneOur favourite, its probability, the actual winner and the margin, for each constituency. Plus the full data to download.
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The original forecast

The interactive page published before the vote is kept as it was, unchanged. Last update: September 19, 2026.

Open the original forecastarchive