Analysis · Germany · Saxony-Anhalt · September 6, 2026
The AfD three seats short of a majority, facing a parliament with no simple alternative
The essentials in three sentences
- The AfD comes first with 43.8% of the vote and 39 of 83 seats, exactly the number our model forecast.
- It is three seats short of an absolute majority, set at 42.
- Without the AfD, a majority requires bringing together the five other parties elected: 44 seats in all.
The new Landtag
83 seats. The dotted line marks the absolute majority, 42 seats.
Our forecast against the result
Grey bar: our 90% range. Line: our central value. Solid dot: result inside the range. Hollow diamond: result outside the range.
What the model sawThe AfD first, at 39 seats. The right winner in 38 of 41 constituencies, and in all 37 where we rated a favourite at 90% or more.
The surprise of the electionThe CDU falls to 17.2%, below our range. The Greens and the BSW do better than forecast, which brings the BSW into the Landtag with 5 seats.
What nextNo two- or three-party coalition reaches 42 seats without the AfD. Forming a government will depend on whether the other five parties can agree.
Subscribers onlyAll 41 constituencies, one by oneOur favourite, its probability, the actual winner and the margin, for each constituency. Plus the full data to download.
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