Le MillénaireElection forecasts
Germany · September 6, 2026

Saxony-Anhalt state election

Our forecast, frozen on September 3, 2026, against the official result.

Final result · source: Landeswahlleiterin Sachsen-Anhalt, September 22, 2026

The verdictAfD forecast at 39 seats: 39 won.
Favourites at 90% or more confirmed37 favourites out of 37 rated 90% or more: all confirmed.
Leading party rightAfD forecast first: first.
Constituencies with the right winner38 constituencies out of 41 with the right winner.

All five indicators, election by election, in the track record

Our forecast against the result

Grey bar: our 90% range. Line: our central value. Solid dot: result inside the range. Hollow diamond: result outside the range.

0%10%20%30%40%50%AfD38.9 → 43.8%CDU24.9 → 17.2% (outside range)Die Linke12.4 → 8.6% (outside range)SPD8.4 → 9.3%Greens5.2 → 8.9% (outside range)BSW3.7 → 5.3% (outside range)FDP2.7 → 2.6%
The essentials in three sentences
  1. The AfD comes first with 43.8% of the vote and 39 of 83 seats, exactly the number our model forecast.
  2. It is three seats short of an absolute majority, set at 42.
  3. Without the AfD, a majority requires bringing together the five other parties elected: 44 seats in all.
Read the analysis

The new Landtag

AfD 39CDU 15Die Linke 8SPD 8Greens 8BSW 5
Subscribers onlyAll 41 constituencies, one by oneOur favourite, its probability, the actual winner and the margin, for each constituency. Plus the full data to download.
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The original forecast

The interactive page published before the vote is kept as it was, unchanged. Last update: September 3, 2026.

Open the original forecastarchive