Forecast - Israeli legislative election 2026

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An open election: no outcome has better than even odds
Le Millénaire · 28 polls from 8 pollsters · updated October 2, 2026 · election on October 27, 2026
All listsif the Supreme Court allows Ra'am and the Joint List
Without the Arab listsif the Supreme Court upholds their disqualification
Who will govern after October 27
The four possible outcomes and their probability. A majority is 61 seats out of 120.
Benjamin Netanyahu keeps a majority24%
Likud and its allies reach 61 seats: Otzma Yehudit, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Religious Zionism and Amcha Yisrael.
The anti-Netanyahu camp governs21%
Yashar, B'Yachad, the Democrats, Yisrael Beytenu and Hendel-Zelekha reach 61 seats without the Arab lists.
The ultra-Orthodox parties switch sides26%
Yashar, B'Yachad and the Democrats reach 61 seats with Shas and United Torah Judaism.
No majority29%
Lengthy negotiations. Benjamin Netanyahu remains prime minister of the caretaker government. A new election becomes possible.
How the result comes aboutAt the centre of the simulations, the Netanyahu camp holds 55.1 seats and the anti-Netanyahu camp 53.6. The two Arab lists total 11.3. They count towards no majority: the main lists of the anti-Netanyahu camp have ruled out governing with them. Yisrael Beytenu and Hendel-Zelekha refuse to govern with the ultra-Orthodox parties. The model assumes that Yashar will not govern with Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud. When the anti-Netanyahu camp reaches 61 seats, Yashar is its largest list in 84% of cases: Gadi Eisenkot would then be the natural candidate for prime minister.

Who finishes first

Finishing first confers no right: the President asks the member most likely to secure 61 votes to form the government. B'Yachad finishes first in 6% of simulations.
Benjamin Netanyahu
Benjamin Netanyahu
Likud
50%
list finishing first
24
seats, central value
from 14 to 38
Gadi Eisenkot
Gadi Eisenkot
Yashar
43%
list finishing first
22
seats, central value
from 11 to 42

The lists

Chances of clearing the 3.25% threshold, vote share and seats. Range: nine simulations out of ten.
Listenters the Knessetvotesseatsrange
Likud> 99%18.9%2414-38
Yashar> 99%18.1%2211-42
B'Yachad96%9.4%114-24
The Democrats98%7.0%95-15
Shas98%6.8%84-14
Hadash-Ta'al-Balad95%5.9%70-12
United Torah Judaism96%5.9%74-12
Otzma Yehudit95%5.8%74-12
Yisrael Beytenu92%5.6%70-12
Religious Zionism-Zehut83%4.7%50-10
Ra'am69%4.0%50-8
AIAmcha Yisrael46%3.5%00-9
HHendel-Zelekha29%2.8%00-7

A list below 3.25% gets no seats: its votes are lost. Seven lists stand between 3 and 6%: much of the election is decided there.

The two camps

Share of simulations for each seat total. Right of the red line, a camp governs without needing anyone else.
2%4%6%6135404550556065707580
Netanyahu camp: 24% at 61 seats or moreAnti-Netanyahu camp: 21% at 61 seats or more

Build a coalition

Tick lists: the page counts the share of simulations in which their combined seats reach 61. This is arithmetic: it does not say whether these lists would agree to govern together.
These lists reach 61 seats in
-
Combined seats, central value: -

Probabilities over time

Recomputed every two days since the lists were filed, using only the polls available at each date.

Who will govern

25%50%75%9/89/129/169/209/249/2810/2No majority 30%Ultra-Orthodox switch 26%Netanyahu majority 24%Anti-Netanyahu camp 21%

List finishing first

25%50%75%9/89/129/169/209/249/2810/2Likud 50%Yashar 43%B'Yachad 6%

Chances of entering the Knesset

25%50%75%9/89/129/169/209/249/2810/2B'Yachad 96%United Torah Judaism 96%Otzma Yehudit 95%Hadash-Ta'al-Balad 95%Yisrael Beytenu 92%Religious Zionism-Zehut 83%Ra'am 69%Amcha Yisrael 46%Hendel-Zelekha 29%

The other lists stayed above 97% at every date: Yashar, Likud, The Democrats, Shas.

The campaign in polls

Seats given by each poll published since the lists were filed, for the three leading lists. The line is a moving average. These are the figures published by pollsters, before any processing by the model.
51015202530359/79/109/169/229/27LikudYasharB'Yachad

The 2022 election

Election of the 25th Knesset, November 1, 2022. Valid votes, Central Elections Committee. Last column: the 2026 list that descends from it.
Listvotesseatsin 2026
Likud23.41%32Likud
Yesh Atid17.79%24B'Yachad
Religious Zionism10.84%14Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionism-Zehut
National Unity9.08%12Blue and White, not modelled
Shas8.25%11Shas
United Torah Judaism5.88%7United Torah Judaism
Yisrael Beytenu4.48%6Yisrael Beytenu
Ra'am4.07%5Ra'am
Hadash-Ta'al3.75%5Hadash-Ta'al-Balad
Labor3.69%4The Democrats
Meretz3.16%0The Democrats
Balad2.91%0Hadash-Ta'al-Balad
Jewish Home1.19%0none
New Economic Party0.29%0Hendel-Zelekha

Benjamin Netanyahu's camp won 64 seats. Yashar and Amcha Yisrael did not exist. Benny Gantz's National Unity has broken up: Blue and White runs alone, New Hope joined Likud and Gadi Eisenkot founded Yashar.

The electoral rules

A single nationwide constituency, 120 seats, election on Tuesday, October 27, 2026.
The threshold
A list needs 3.25% of valid votes to win seats, which means at least four.
The allocation
The 120 seats are allocated by national proportional representation, using the Bader-Ofer method, a variant of the D'Hondt method.
Surplus agreements
Two lists may pool their remainders for the last seat. Agreements must be filed by October 16.
Forming the government
The President consults the elected groups, then asks a member to form a government within 28 days, extendable by 14. If that fails, another member has 28 days, then a majority of members may put one forward. Otherwise the Knesset is dissolved and voters go back to the polls.
The Arab lists
The Central Elections Committee voted on September 23 to disqualify Ra'am and the Joint List. These decisions are being challenged before the Supreme Court, which has not yet ruled. Both cases are shown.

The test on past elections

The model replayed on the five elections from 2019 to 2022, 25 days before the vote, using only the polls then available. The tested election is removed from everything the model learns from the past. No setting was changed after this test.
ElectionNetanyahu camp at 61seats forecastseats wonmajority
April 201958%6265yes
September 201923%5755no
March 20202%5658no
March 2021< 1%4852no
November 202234%6064yes

The model rated the actual outcome as the most likely in 4 elections out of 5. Its Brier score, which measures the gap between stated probabilities and what happened, is 0.133; it would be 0.240 by always stating the average frequency of majorities. Lower is better.

How it works

A forecasting model is not one more poll. A poll surveys a sample and describes opinion at a given moment. A model surveys no one. It gathers what can be measured, published polls, past election results and the campaign context, and derives a distribution of possible outcomes with their probability. It does not say that a list will win 22 seats. It says within which range it will finish, and how likely each outcome is.

Why it is sturdier than a single poll

Two pollsters published on the same day can differ by several seats. The model aggregates every poll published since the lists were filed, giving more weight to the most recent, the largest and the pollsters that erred least in the past. It takes into account the last election, list by list, and the campaign context. When a source provides no reliable measurement, it does not count, and its share goes to the others.

Past polling errors

Israeli polls erred at each of the five elections from 2019 to 2022. The model replays these real errors on today's polls, in both directions: it does not assume in advance that a camp will be underestimated. This is what gives each list its range and each outcome its probability.

Seats, not just votes

Each simulation allocates the 120 seats under Israeli electoral law: 3.25% threshold, Bader-Ofer method and surplus agreements. Who governs is then read from the refusals to govern together that list leaders have stated publicly during the campaign.

No certainty on display

Uncertainty is this model's product, never its flaw. The computation is exact and reproducible, and the model was replayed on the five elections from 2019 to 2022 without any setting being changed afterwards.

Sources

Results: Central Elections Committee. Polls: pollsters and broadcasters, reports filed with the Committee's register. Past elections: public compilations of 2019 to 2022 polls. Statements by list leaders: Jerusalem Post, Times of Israel, Ynet, Israel National News.

See the polls used (28)
  • Maagar Mochot, fieldwork ending 9/29, 550 respondents
  • Next Data (Channel 14), fieldwork ending 9/28, 573 respondents
  • Kantar (Kan), fieldwork ending 9/27, 552 respondents
  • Direct Polls, fieldwork ending 9/24, 537 respondents
  • Lazar / Panels Politics (Maariv), fieldwork ending 9/24, 610 respondents
  • Tatika, fieldwork ending 9/24, 500 respondents
  • Midgam Project / HaMadad (Channel 13), fieldwork ending 9/23, 1503 respondents
  • Next Data (Channel 14), fieldwork ending 9/23, 647 respondents
  • Midgam (Channel 12), fieldwork ending 9/22, 501 respondents
  • Lazar / Panels Politics (Maariv), fieldwork ending 9/18, 600 respondents
  • Direct Polls, fieldwork ending 9/17, 519 respondents
  • Kantar (Kan), fieldwork ending 9/17, 551 respondents
  • Next Data (Channel 14), fieldwork ending 9/17, 817 respondents
  • Tatika, fieldwork ending 9/17, 500 respondents
  • Midgam Project / HaMadad (Channel 13), fieldwork ending 9/16, 886 respondents
  • Next Data (Channel 14), fieldwork ending 9/15, 483 respondents
  • Midgam (Channel 12), fieldwork ending 9/14
  • Lazar / Panels Politics (Maariv), fieldwork ending 9/10, 601 respondents
  • Tatika, fieldwork ending 9/10, 500 respondents
  • Direct Polls, fieldwork ending 9/9, 1054 respondents
  • Midgam Project / HaMadad (Channel 13), fieldwork ending 9/9, 1119 respondents
  • Kantar (Kan), fieldwork ending 9/9, 554 respondents
  • Lazar / Panels Politics (Maariv), fieldwork ending 9/9, 506 respondents
  • Maagar Mochot, fieldwork ending 9/9
  • Next Data (Channel 14), fieldwork ending 9/9, 537 respondents
  • Lazar / Panels Politics (Maariv), fieldwork ending 9/8, 600 respondents
  • Midgam (Channel 12), fieldwork ending 9/7, 503 respondents
  • Next Data (Channel 14), fieldwork ending 9/7, 1057 respondents

Credits

All rights belong to Le Millénaire SAS, 47 rue de Vivienne, 75002 Paris.

Model designed by
Project director: William Thay
Deputy project director: Pierre Clairé
Political and data analysis: Matthieu Hocque
Data analysis, mathematics and validation: Florian Gérard-Mercier