Le MillénaireElection forecasts
Forecast · Brazil · Presidential runoff · 25 October 2026J-1

Flávio Bolsonaro favourite for the 25 October runoff

Updated October 24, 2026, 22:17 (Brasília) · 20,000 simulations · official first-round result · 47 runoff polls since 4 October
Country profile: BrazilThe forecastElection night, 25 October
Who will win
Out of 100 simulated runoffs, Flávio Bolsonaro wins 66, Lula 34.
Flávio Bolsonaro

66.0%Flávio Bolsonaro
PL, right · 47.0% in the first round

Lula

34.0%Lula
PT, left · incumbent · 45.2% in the first round

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« According to Le Millénaire's forecast model (update of October 24, 2026), Flávio Bolsonaro has 66 chances in 100 of winning Brazil's presidential runoff, Lula 34. »

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Each dot is one simulated election

The projected runoff result

Share of valid votes at the centre of the 20,000 simulations. The dashed line marks the majority.

50.9%49.1%

In 90% of simulations, Lula gets between 45.7 and 52.6%.

Key figures

What the model says, in four numbers.

Projected share50.9 – 49.1

Flávio Bolsonaro, then Lula, as a share of valid votes. At 90%, Lula between 45.7 and 52.6%.

First round47.0 – 45.2

Official 4 October result: Flávio Bolsonaro, then Lula.

States15 / 27

States where Flávio Bolsonaro is projected ahead. Lula ahead in 12.

What Lula needs68.1%

of other candidates’ voters who pick a finalist. Otherwise he stays below 50%.

Chances since the first round

Runoff winning chances, recalculated at each update since October 5, 2026.

0255075100Flávio Bolsonaro 66.0Lula 34.05/107/109/1011/1013/1015/1017/1019/1021/1023/1024/10

Where the election will be decided

Lula’s projected share in each state. Flávio Bolsonaro leads in 15 of 27 states.

Acre: Lula 31.9%, Flávio Bolsonaro 68.1%Alagoas: Lula 57.5%, Flávio Bolsonaro 42.5%Amazonas: Lula 51.9%, Flávio Bolsonaro 48.1%Amapá: Lula 50.1%, Flávio Bolsonaro 49.9%Bahia: Lula 69.4%, Flávio Bolsonaro 30.6%Ceará: Lula 66.4%, Flávio Bolsonaro 33.6%Espírito Santo: Lula 41.4%, Flávio Bolsonaro 58.6%Goiás: Lula 38.1%, Flávio Bolsonaro 61.9%Maranhão: Lula 67.0%, Flávio Bolsonaro 33.0%Minas Gerais: Lula 47.6%, Flávio Bolsonaro 52.4%Mato Grosso do Sul: Lula 37.9%, Flávio Bolsonaro 62.1%Mato Grosso: Lula 31.8%, Flávio Bolsonaro 68.2%Pará: Lula 53.0%, Flávio Bolsonaro 47.0%Paraíba: Lula 64.6%, Flávio Bolsonaro 35.4%Pernambuco: Lula 66.7%, Flávio Bolsonaro 33.3%Piauí: Lula 74.0%, Flávio Bolsonaro 26.0%Paraná: Lula 35.2%, Flávio Bolsonaro 64.8%Rio de Janeiro: Lula 43.2%, Flávio Bolsonaro 56.8%Rio Grande do Norte: Lula 63.0%, Flávio Bolsonaro 37.0%Rondônia: Lula 28.9%, Flávio Bolsonaro 71.1%Roraima: Lula 25.5%, Flávio Bolsonaro 74.5%Rio Grande do Sul: Lula 39.8%, Flávio Bolsonaro 60.2%Santa Catarina: Lula 28.5%, Flávio Bolsonaro 71.5%Sergipe: Lula 66.7%, Flávio Bolsonaro 33.3%São Paulo: Lula 42.8%, Flávio Bolsonaro 57.2%Tocantins: Lula 46.7%, Flávio Bolsonaro 53.3%Distrito Federal: Lula 43.1%, Flávio Bolsonaro 56.9%
Lula over 60%55-6050-5550-5555-60Flávio Bolsonaro over 60%
The five closest states
StateLulachances
Amapá50.1%52%
Amazonas51.9%72%
Minas Gerais47.6%23%
Pará53.0%81%
Tocantins46.7%17%

Lula’s projected share and his chance of coming first in the state.

The latest runoff polls

The five latest published polls, as valid votes. The model has used 47 since the first round.

PollsterLulaFlávio
DataFolha · 24/1049.5%50.5%
Quaest · 24/1049.5%50.5%
Nexus · 24/1049.5%50.5%
Palver · 24/1049.5%50.5%
Gerp · 24/1048.4%51.6%
Since 2002, the candidate who came first in the first round has always won the runoff. This year the first-round gap is 1.9 points, against 5.2 in 2022.
The full report · Brazil 2026
The 27-state map, runoff polls, vote transfers, scenarios, the method
Le Millénaire · 20,000 simulations · updated four times a day until 24 October, 23:30 (Brasília)

All the model’s data and charts on a single page. This is the link we give to the press.

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What the model had forecast

Our first-round forecast, frozen on 3 October at 23:30, against the official result.

25 / 27

The right finalist ahead in 25 states out of 27. The two states we missed, Amazonas and Tocantins, were our two closest projections: 49.8% and 50.3% for Lula.

83%

A Lula vs Flávio Bolsonaro runoff, with no first-round winner: the outcome in 83% of our simulations.

6 / 7

Six vote shares out of seven inside our 90% range, including Lula’s and Flávio Bolsonaro’s.

See the full track record, misses included

How it works

  1. We start from the official first-round result, candidate by candidate.
  2. Voters of eliminated candidates are allocated according to the transfers measured in polls.
  3. We add runoff polls fielded after the first round: each pollster’s latest wave, with recent ones weighing more.
  4. We simulate 20,000 runoffs with the error observed in the 2002 to 2022 elections.
  5. The chances are the share of simulations each candidate wins.

A model is not a poll. It says within what range each candidate will finish, and what their chances are.

The detailed method

Changelog

October 3, 2026First-round forecast frozen at 23:30 (Brasília).
October 5, 2026Runoff projection from the official result, with transfers by candidate and by state.
October 24, 2026Freeze planned at 23:30 (Brasília), the day before the vote.

Brazil on our three sites

Country profileThe election, the contenders, the polling average, the history.
The forecastEach candidate’s chances, the scenarios, the method, the track record.
Election nightThe live count on 25 October, state by state.