Benjamin Netanyahu clear favourite to remain prime minister after October 27
92%Benjamin Netanyahu
Likud · coalition of 55 seats
7%Gadi Eisenkot
Yashar · coalition of 51 seats
His 92 chances break down as follows: 23% heading a new majority, 69% heading the outgoing government, for lack of a majority.
« According to Le Millénaire's forecast model (update of October 24, 2026), Benjamin Netanyahu has 92 chances in 100 of being prime minister the day after Israel's October 27 election, including 23 at the head of a new majority. »
The three possible outcomes
A majority is 61 seats out of 120. The model only tests coalitions that public statements make possible.
Likud and its allies reach 61 seats: Otzma Yehudit, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Religious Zionism and Amcha Yisrael.
Yashar, B'Yachad, the Democrats, Yisrael Beytenu and Hendel-Zelekha reach 61 seats without the Arab lists.
Benjamin Netanyahu stays at the head of the outgoing government until a deal or new elections within 90 days.
Key figures
What the model says, in four numbers.
seats at the central value, 45 to 67 in nine simulations out of ten. 61 are needed.
seats without the Arab lists, 39 to 63.
for Likud. Yashar finishes first in 38% of simulations.
for the Netanyahu camp when no one has a majority, against 9 for the other camp.
The 120 seats, camp by camp
Central value of the simulations. The Arab lists count towards no majority: the main lists of the anti-Netanyahu camp have ruled out governing with them.
The dashed line marks the 61-seat majority.
Probabilities over time
Recomputed every two days since September 8, 2026, using only the polls available at each date.
The lists
Seats at the central value, range in nine simulations out of ten and chances of clearing the 3.25% threshold.
All the model’s data and charts on a single page, in four languages. This is the link we give to the press.
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See the plansTested on the last five elections
The model replayed from 2019 to 2022, 3 days before the vote, using only the polls then available. No setting was changed after this test.
elections where the model’s most likely outcome happened.
Brier score, against 0.240 by always stating the average frequency. Lower is better.
seats of average gap between forecast and result for the Netanyahu camp.
How it works
- The model aggregates the polls published since the lists were filed, giving more weight to the most recent, the largest and the pollsters that erred least.
- It replays the real polling errors of 2019 to 2022 on today’s polls.
- It replays the election 20,000 times.
- Each simulation allocates the 120 seats under electoral law: 3.25% threshold, Bader-Ofer method, surplus agreements.
- Who governs follows from the refusals to govern together publicly stated by list leaders.
The model sticks to public statements. In 2020, Benny Gantz joined a government led by Benjamin Netanyahu; in 2021, Naftali Bennett governed with Ra’am. Such reversals are not forecast.
The detailed method